UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Joseph Benavidez (15-5). Figueiredo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 199 points above Benavidez's 1291. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Figueiredo's knockout artist game against Benavidez's wrestler approach. Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Benavidez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Benavidez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Joseph Benavidez.** We're leaning Figueiredo here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Figueiredo at 68% implied while our model sees 74% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Hermansson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 222 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hermansson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hermansson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Kelvin Gastelum.** The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hermansson at 50% implied while our model sees 63% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-4) taking on Marc Diakiese (7-7). Diakiese is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fiziev is rated at 1312 — 262 points above Diakiese's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiziev throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Diakiese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Rafael Fiziev.** The model gives Diakiese a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ariane da Silva (6-7) taking on Luana Carolina (6-3).

Carolina carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Carolina has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Carolina brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Carolina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ariane da Silva over Luana Carolina.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Askar Askarov (3-0-1) taking on Alexandre Pantoja (14-3).

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 212 points above Askarov's 1285. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Askarov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Pantoja has won 8 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Askarov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Askarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Askar Askarov.** We're leaning Pantoja here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Askarov, but our model sees only 32%. That 4-point gap favoring Pantoja is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Khadis Ibragimov (0-3).

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 807 points above Ibragimov's 740. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ibragimov throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ibragimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roman Dolidze over Khadis Ibragimov.** The model gives Dolidze a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Dolidze, but our model sees only 56%. That 4-point gap favoring Ibragimov is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Nad Narimani (2-1). Dawson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 395 points above Narimani's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Narimani throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Narimani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Grant Dawson over Nad Narimani.** The model is firm on this one: Dawson at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Joe Duffy (4-3). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 606 points above Duffy's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Duffy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joel Alvarez over Joe Duffy.** The model gives Alvarez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brett Johns (4-2) taking on Montel Jackson (9-2). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 153 points above Johns's 1295. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson has won 6 straight.

The style clash matters here: Johns looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jackson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Johns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Montel Jackson over Brett Johns.** We're leaning Jackson here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Amir Albazi (5-1) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-4). Gordon is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Albazi is rated at 1267 — 517 points above Gordon's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Albazi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gordon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gordon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amir Albazi over Malcolm Gordon.** The model gives Albazi a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Davi Ramos (4-2).

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 676 points above Ramos's 1160. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Ramos's wrestler approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Davi Ramos.** We're leaning Tsarukyan here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Carlos Felipe (3-1). Spivac is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Spivac is rated at 1355 — 298 points above Felipe's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Felipe has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spivac throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Felipe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Carlos Felipe.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spivac at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.