UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Saturday, May 9, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA·11 fights
Model: 10/11(91%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R5)
Gaethje 50%50% Ferguson
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ferguson)
BantamweightHIT
Henry Cejudo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cejudo 54%46% Cruz
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +323(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cruz)
HeavyweightHIT
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ngannou 68%32% Rozenstruik
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +281(favors Ngannou)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Rozenstruik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rozenstruik)
FeatherweightHIT
Calvin Kattar won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kattar 65%35% Stephens
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +60(favors Kattar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Stephens)
HeavyweightHIT
Greg Hardy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hardy 80%20% Castro
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -26(favors Castro)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Castro)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 52%48% Cerrone
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cerrone)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by Decision - Split (R3)
Oleinik 32%68% Werdum
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -356(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Oleinik)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Split (R3)
Esparza 62%38% Waterson-Gomez
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Esparza)
WelterweightHIT
Vicente Luque won by KO/TKO (R3)
Luque 71%29% Price
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Price)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Bryce Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 70%30% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +159(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Rosa)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Spann won by Decision - Split (R3)
Spann 72%28% Alvey
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +420(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Spann)