UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7). Lee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 649 points above Lee's 1197. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Charles Oliveira. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Demian Maia (22-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Maia.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Burns at 1379, Maia at 1371. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Demian Maia. The model gives Burns a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Damir Hadzovic (4-5). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 660 points above Hadzovic's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Damir Hadzovic. The model is firm on this one: Moicano at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 79% implied while our model sees 86% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Johnny Walker (7-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Walker carries a modest Elo edge (1432 to 1400), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Krylov's wrestler game against Walker's knockout artist approach. Krylov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Johnny Walker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krylov at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Krylov at 40% implied while our model sees 55% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on John Makdessi (11-8).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 340 points above Makdessi's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Makdessi's striker approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over John Makdessi. We're leaning Trinaldo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 67%. That 5-point gap favoring Makdessi is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Jussier Formiga (9-6). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Moreno is rated at 1410 — 261 points above Formiga's 1149. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Formiga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Jussier Formiga. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moreno at 37% implied while our model sees 62% — a 25-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-5) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1). Ribas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribas carries a modest Elo edge (1048 to 974), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Randa Markos. The model is firm on this one: Ribas at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Aleksei Kunchenko (2-1). Santos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kunchenko carries a modest Elo edge (1107 to 1041), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kunchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Aleksei Kunchenko. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Enrique Barzola (6-3). Barzola will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barzola carries a modest Elo edge (1071 to 1030), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barzola throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Rani Yahya. We're leaning Barzola here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 32% for Yahya, but our model sees only 27%. That 5-point gap favoring Barzola is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-5) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1016 to 952), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Moroz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Mayra Bueno Silva. The model gives Moroz a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moroz at 40% implied while our model sees 61% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features David Dvorak (3-2) taking on Bruno Silva (4-4). Dvorak will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva is rated at 1203 — 247 points above Dvorak's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Dvorak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bruno Silva over David Dvorak. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bea Malecki (2-0) taking on Veronica Hardy (4-5). Malecki is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hardy at 1091 versus Malecki at 973. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malecki throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Malecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bea Malecki over Veronica Hardy. The model gives Malecki a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.