UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Yoel Romero (9-3). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Romero carries a modest Elo edge (1613 to 1559), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Adesanya is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Romero brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Adesanya the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adesanya throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Romero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Yoel Romero.** The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 82%.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Weili is rated at 1649 — 457 points above Jedrzejczyk's 1192. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Weili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jedrzejczyk is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Weili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Weili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zhang Weili over Joanna Jedrzejczyk.** We're leaning Weili here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Drakkar Klose (9-3).

Dariush carries a modest Elo edge (1437 to 1397), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Dariush's wrestler game against Klose's striker approach. Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Klose brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Drakkar Klose.** We're leaning Dariush here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Li Jingliang (11-6). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Magny at 1270, Jingliang at 1270. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Magny's all-rounder game against Jingliang's striker approach. Magny is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jingliang brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Li Jingliang.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magny at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Max Griffin (8-9).

Griffin is rated at 1152 — 218 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Max Griffin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Jose Quinonez (5-3). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 865 points above Quinonez's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is O'Malley's striker game against Quinonez's all-rounder approach. O'Malley brings a versatile approach, while Quinonez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Quinonez over Sean O'Malley.** We're leaning Quinonez here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Madsen (4-1) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7).

Madsen is rated at 1112 — 295 points above Hubbard's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Madsen's striker game against Hubbard's all-rounder approach. Madsen brings a versatile approach, while Hubbard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 15.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.0 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Madsen over Austin Hubbard.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Madsen at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Rodolfo Vieira (6-3) taking on Saparbeg Safarov (1-2). Safarov will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Vieira is rated at 1069 — 153 points above Safarov's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Safarov throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira over Saparbeg Safarov.** We're leaning Vieira here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Deron Winn (2-2). Meerschaert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Meerschaert at 867, Winn at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Winn throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Winn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Deron Winn.** The model gives Meerschaert a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Jamall Emmers (4-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chikadze at 1150, Emmers at 1177. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Chikadze's all-rounder game against Emmers's striker approach. Chikadze is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Emmers brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chikadze throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Emmers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Jamall Emmers.** The model gives Chikadze a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Batgerel Danaa (3-3) taking on Guido Cannetti (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cannetti at 1005 versus Danaa at 887. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Danaa's striker game against Cannetti's wrestler approach. Danaa brings a versatile approach, while Cannetti looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danaa throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Danaa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Batgerel Danaa over Guido Cannetti.** The model gives Danaa a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.