UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Paul Felder (9-5). Hooker will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hooker at 1450 versus Felder at 1363. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hooker's knockout artist game against Felder's all-rounder approach. Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Felder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Hooker over Paul Felder.** The model gives Hooker a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Oleksiejczuk at 1268 versus Crute at 1151. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Crute's wrestler game against Oleksiejczuk's striker approach. Crute looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Jimmy Crute.** The model gives Oleksiejczuk a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9).

Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 541 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Xiaonan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Karolina Kowalkiewicz.** We're leaning Xiaonan here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Ben Sosoli (0-0). Lima will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lima is rated at 1275 — 409 points above Sosoli's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Ben Sosoli.** The model gives Lima a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Brad Riddell (4-2) taking on Magomed Mustafaev (3-1).

Mustafaev carries a modest Elo edge (1151 to 1088), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddell throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Riddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Riddell over Magomed Mustafaev.** We're leaning Riddell here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Riddell at 44% implied while our model sees 66% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1) taking on Kevin Aguilar (2-3). Aguilar will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tukhugov is rated at 1132 — 263 points above Aguilar's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tukhugov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Tukhugov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov over Kevin Aguilar.** The model gives Tukhugov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tukhugov at 49% implied while our model sees 57% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on Josh Culibao (3-3-1). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1393 — 421 points above Culibao's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Culibao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Culibao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Culibao over Jalin Turner.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Culibao at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Emil Meek (1-2).

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 291 points above Meek's 1005. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Emil Meek.** The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 67% implied while our model sees 85% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-4) taking on Callan Potter (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kenan at 1007 versus Potter at 903. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Potter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Potter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Kenan over Callan Potter.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kenan at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Kai Kara-France (8-4) taking on Tyson Nam (3-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Nam.

Kara-France is rated at 1351 — 363 points above Nam's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kara-France is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kai Kara-France over Tyson Nam.** The model is firm on this one: Kara-France at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Kara-France at 70% implied while our model sees 78% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Loma Lookboonmee (7-2). Hill is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hill at 1074, Lookboonmee at 1089. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Lookboonmee has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lookboonmee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Angela Hill.** The model gives Lookboonmee a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Hill, but our model sees only 40%. That 22-point gap favoring Lookboonmee is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Priscila Cachoeira (5-7) taking on Shana Dobson (2-3). Dobson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cachoeira carries a modest Elo edge (903 to 848), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dobson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shana Dobson over Priscila Cachoeira.** The model gives Dobson a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cachoeira at 37% implied while our model sees 45% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.