UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Dominick Reyes (9-4). Jones will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 633 points above Reyes's 1529. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one, while Reyes has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Dominick Reyes.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 78%.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Katlyn Cerminara (11-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 515 points above Cerminara's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Katlyn Cerminara.** We're leaning Shevchenko here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Tafa (4-4) taking on Juan Adams (1-2). Adams is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Tafa is rated at 938 — 187 points above Adams's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adams throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Adams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Tafa over Juan Adams.** The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Mirsad Bektic (6-3).

Ige is rated at 1235 — 225 points above Bektic's 1010. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bektic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bektic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Mirsad Bektic.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ige at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Ilir Latifi (9-6). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 171 points above Latifi's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Latifi's all-rounder approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Latifi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Latifi throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Latifi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Ilir Latifi.** The model gives Lewis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-6) taking on James Krause (8-4).

Krause is rated at 1436 — 591 points above Giles's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevin Giles over James Krause.** The model gives Giles a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8).

Murphy is rated at 1171 — 307 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Murphy's striker game against Lee's all-rounder approach. Murphy brings a versatile approach, while Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrea Lee over Lauren Murphy.** The model gives Lee a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Khaos Williams (6-3) taking on Alex Morono (13-9). Williams will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Williams is rated at 1159 — 290 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Williams's striker game against Morono's all-rounder approach. Williams brings a versatile approach, while Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Morono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over Khaos Williams.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morono at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Miles Johns (6-4).

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 522 points above Johns's 1044. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bautista's all-rounder game against Johns's striker approach. Bautista is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johns brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miles Johns over Mario Bautista.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johns at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Domingo Pilarte (0-1) taking on Journey Newson (1-3). Pilarte is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Pilarte carries a modest Elo edge (882 to 815), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Newson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pilarte is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Newson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Domingo Pilarte over Journey Newson.** The model gives Pilarte a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Andre Ewell (4-4) taking on Jonathan Martinez (10-4). Ewell will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 476 points above Ewell's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Andre Ewell.** We're leaning Martinez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Austin Lingo (2-2).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 628 points above Lingo's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lingo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lingo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lingo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Austin Lingo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zalal at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.