UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 248 points above Oliveira's 1846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Topuria's knockout artist game against Oliveira's wrestler approach. Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Topuria throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Topuria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ilia Topuria over Charles Oliveira.** We're leaning Topuria here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Kai Kara-France (8-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pantoja at 1497 versus Kara-France at 1351. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pantoja's wrestler game against Kara-France's striker approach. Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kara-France brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Kai Kara-France.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pantoja at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (8-1) taking on Brandon Royval (7-4). Royval is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Van is rated at 1678 — 364 points above Royval's 1314. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Van rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Van's striker game against Royval's all-rounder approach. Van brings a versatile approach, while Royval is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Van is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Van has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Royval over Joshua Van.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Royval at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Renato Moicano (12-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moicano at 1542 versus Dariush at 1437. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renato Moicano over Beneil Dariush.** The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Payton Talbott (4-1) taking on Felipe Lima (2-0). Talbott is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Talbott is rated at 1414 — 237 points above Lima's 1177. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Talbott throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Felipe Lima over Payton Talbott.** The model gives Lima a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7).

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 397 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodrigues's striker game against Hermansson's all-rounder approach. Rodrigues brings a versatile approach, while Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Jack Hermansson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodrigues at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Delgado (2-0) taking on Hyder Amil (3-1). Delgado is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Delgado is rated at 1194 — 184 points above Amil's 1011. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amil throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Amil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Delgado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Delgado over Hyder Amil.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Delgado at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Tracy Cortez (6-1) taking on Viviane Araujo (7-5). Araujo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cortez at 1318 versus Araujo at 1207. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cortez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cortez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cortez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tracy Cortez over Viviane Araujo.** The model gives Cortez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Terrance McKinney (7-4) taking on Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1). McKinney will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

McKinney is rated at 1110 — 297 points above Borshchev's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Borshchev is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving McKinney the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKinney throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Borshchev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Viacheslav Borshchev.** We're leaning McKinney here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jacobe Smith (2-0) taking on Niko Price (8-9). Price is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Smith is rated at 1271 — 455 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jacobe Smith over Niko Price.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jhonata Diniz (3-1) taking on Alvin Hines (0-0). Diniz is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Diniz at 1031 versus Hines at 946. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diniz throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hines is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hines has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jhonata Diniz over Alvin Hines.** We're leaning Diniz here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.