UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Saturday, December 14, 2019·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 12/13(92%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by KO/TKO (R5)
Usman 61%39% Covington
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +147(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Covington)
FeatherweightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Volkanovski 71%29% Holloway
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -113(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Volkanovski)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Nunes 76%24% Randamie
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +220(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Nunes)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 55%45% Aldo
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Aldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Moraes)
BantamweightHIT
Petr Yan won by KO/TKO (R3)
Yan 79%21% Faber
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +103(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Faber)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Geoff Neal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Neal 69%31% Perry
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +182(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Neal)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Irene Aldana won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aldana 57%43% Vieira
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -269(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Vieira)
MiddleweightHIT
Omari Akhmedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Akhmedov 62%38% Heinisch
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Heinisch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Akhmedov)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brown 63%37% Saunders
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +431(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Saunders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Brown)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Chase Hooper won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hooper 61%39% Teymur
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +80(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Teymur)
FlyweightMISS
Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moreno 41%59% Kara-France
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -97(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Moreno)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jessica Eye won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eye 56%44% Araujo
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Araujo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Araujo)
MiddleweightHIT
Punahele Soriano won by KO/TKO (R1)
Soriano 53%47% Piechota
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +123(favors Soriano)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Piechota)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Piechota)