UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Jacare Souza (9-6). Blachowicz will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 391 points above Souza's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jan Blachowicz over Jacare Souza. We're leaning Blachowicz here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

Craig is rated at 1045 — 169 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rua's striker game against Craig's wrestler approach. Rua brings a versatile approach, while Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Paul Craig. The model gives Rua a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 68% for Rua, but our model sees only 64%. That 4-point gap favoring Craig is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6). Oliveira will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 636 points above Gordon's 1209. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oliveira's submission artist game against Gordon's striker approach. Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gordon brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Jared Gordon. The model is firm on this one: Oliveira at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 79% implied while our model sees 86% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Muniz (6-3) taking on Antonio Arroyo (0-2). Muniz will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Muniz is rated at 1034 — 273 points above Arroyo's 761. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arroyo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arroyo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arroyo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Muniz over Antonio Arroyo. The model gives Muniz a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Muniz at 54% implied while our model sees 61% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Wellington Turman (3-5) taking on Markus Perez (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Turman at 866 versus Perez at 784. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Turman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Perez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Turman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wellington Turman over Markus Perez. The model gives Turman a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Turman at 54% implied while our model sees 62% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Sergio Moraes (8-4-1).

Krause is rated at 1436 — 339 points above Moraes's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Krause looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Krause the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Krause is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Krause has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Krause over Sergio Moraes. The model gives Krause a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-6) taking on Eduardo Garagorri (1-1).

Garagorri carries a modest Elo edge (875 to 828), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garagorri throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Eduardo Garagorri. The model gives Ramos a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 154 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over King Green. The model gives Trinaldo a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Trinaldo at 56% implied while our model sees 61% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 486 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's knockout artist game against Alves's all-rounder approach. Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Alves is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Warlley Alves. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 45% implied while our model sees 54% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Renan Barao (9-7).

Andrade is rated at 1146 — 324 points above Barao's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Andrade's striker game against Barao's all-rounder approach. Andrade brings a versatile approach, while Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade over Renan Barao. The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Andrade, but our model sees only 56%. That 14-point gap favoring Barao is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ariane da Silva (6-7) taking on Isabela de Padua (0-0). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 976 versus Padua at 884. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Padua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ariane da Silva over Isabela de Padua. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Tracy Cortez (6-1) taking on Vanessa Melo (0-3).

Cortez is rated at 1318 — 388 points above Melo's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Melo throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Melo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cortez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tracy Cortez over Vanessa Melo. We're leaning Cortez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.