UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Masvidal at 1579, Diaz at 1557. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's knockout artist game against Diaz's all-rounder approach. Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Nate Diaz.** The model gives Masvidal a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Masvidal at 58% implied while our model sees 64% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Darren Till (6-4-1) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Till is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum carries a modest Elo edge (1340 to 1296), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Till's striker game against Gastelum's all-rounder approach. Till brings a versatile approach, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Till is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Till has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Darren Till.** We're leaning Gastelum here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Till, but our model sees only 28%. That 6-point gap favoring Gastelum is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Vicente Luque (16-7).

Thompson carries a modest Elo edge (1329 to 1250), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Thompson brings a versatile approach, while Luque is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Luque the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Vicente Luque.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thompson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Blagoy Ivanov (3-4). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 218 points above Ivanov's 1148. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Ivanov's all-rounder approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Ivanov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ivanov throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ivanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ivanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Blagoy Ivanov.** The model gives Lewis a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 51% implied while our model sees 58% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Gregor Gillespie (6-1). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gillespie is rated at 1554 — 357 points above Lee's 1197. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gillespie is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillespie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Gillespie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Lee over Gregor Gillespie.** The model gives Lee a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 40% implied while our model sees 58% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Johnny Walker (7-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Anderson at 1459, Walker at 1432. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Walker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johnny Walker over Corey Anderson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Walker at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 39% implied while our model sees 48% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Makwan Amirkhani (7-6). Burgos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Burgos is rated at 1365 — 400 points above Amirkhani's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Burgos's knockout artist game against Amirkhani's wrestler approach. Burgos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Amirkhani looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Amirkhani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Burgos over Makwan Amirkhani.** The model gives Burgos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Burgos, but our model sees only 59%. That 8-point gap favoring Amirkhani is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10).

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 390 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shahbazyan's all-rounder game against Tavares's striker approach. Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tavares brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shahbazyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Shahbazyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.7 more per 15 minutes. Shahbazyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Brad Tavares.** We're leaning Shahbazyan here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Shahbazyan at 59% implied while our model sees 70% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Rozenstruik is rated at 1385 — 527 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rozenstruik's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Rozenstruik brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Andrei Arlovski.** The model gives Rozenstruik a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rozenstruik at 58% implied while our model sees 65% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Jennifer Maia (6-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cerminara at 1283 versus Maia at 1193. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Jennifer Maia.** The model gives Cerminara a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Lyman Good (3-2) taking on Chance Rencountre (2-1).

Good is rated at 1228 — 175 points above Rencountre's 1053. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Good throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rencountre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Good has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chance Rencountre over Lyman Good.** The model gives Rencountre a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Good, but our model sees only 40%. That 11-point gap favoring Rencountre is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Hakeem Dawodu (6-3) taking on Julio Arce (5-4). Dawodu will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Arce carries a modest Elo edge (1167 to 1090), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Dawodu's striker game against Arce's all-rounder approach. Dawodu brings a versatile approach, while Arce is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawodu throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Arce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julio Arce over Hakeem Dawodu.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arce at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Dawodu, but our model sees only 47%. That 5-point gap favoring Arce is worth watching.