UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman
Friday, October 18, 2019·Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Dominick Reyes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Reyes 70%30% Weidman
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+6.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Weidman)
Featherweight✓
Yair Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 57%43% Stephens
LEANMarket: 55% (+1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +235(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Rodriguez)
Heavyweight
Hardy 92%8% Sosoli
STRONGMarket: 77% (+14.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +92(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.5(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sosoli)
Lightweight✗
Joe Lauzon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lauzon 38%62% Pearce
LEANMarket: 37% (+1.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -141(favors Pearce)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Lauzon)
Women's Flyweight✓
Maycee Barber won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barber 66%34% Robertson
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+7.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Barber)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Robertson)
Middleweight✓
Darren Stewart won by Decision - Split (R3)
Stewart 54%46% Winn
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +74(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.3(favors Winn)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Stewart)
Featherweight✗
Charles Rosa won by Submission (R1)
Rosa 33%67% Bermudez
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (-4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -172(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Rosa)
Women's Flyweight✓
Molly McCann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McCann 88%12% Belbita
STRONGMarket: 83% (+4.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors McCann)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors McCann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors McCann)
Featherweight✓
Sean Woodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Woodson 58%42% Bochniak
LEANMarket: 50% (+7.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +68(favors Woodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Bochniak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Bochniak)
Bantamweight✓
Randy Costa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Costa 63%37% Salmon
LEANMarket: 41% (+21.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +26(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.4(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Salmon)
Welterweight✗
Sean Brady won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brady 46%54% McGee
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-17.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors McGee)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors McGee)
Middleweight✗
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R2)
Allen 48%52% Holland
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+8.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -228(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Holland)
Heavyweight✓
Tanner Boser won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Boser 66%34% Spitz
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+8.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +75(favors Boser)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Spitz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Spitz)