UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jedrzejczyk is rated at 1192 — 284 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jedrzejczyk's striker game against Waterson-Gomez's all-rounder approach. Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach, while Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michelle Waterson-Gomez over Joanna Jedrzejczyk.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Waterson-Gomez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Kron Gracie (1-2).

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 314 points above Gracie's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Gracie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kron Gracie over Cub Swanson.** The model gives Gracie a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Swanson at 36% implied while our model sees 43% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on James Vick (9-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Vick.

Vick is rated at 1026 — 210 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Price's knockout artist game against Vick's all-rounder approach. Price is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Vick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Niko Price over James Vick.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Price at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Price, but our model sees only 51%. That 7-point gap favoring Vick is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-5) taking on Mackenzie Dern (10-5). Ribas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 424 points above Ribas's 1048. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ribas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Mackenzie Dern.** The model gives Ribas a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ribas at 41% implied while our model sees 61% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Frevola (5-5-1) taking on Luis Pena (4-3). Pena is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pena carries a modest Elo edge (1146 to 1093), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Frevola's knockout artist game against Pena's wrestler approach. Frevola is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pena looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Frevola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Frevola over Luis Pena.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Frevola at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Frevola at 42% implied while our model sees 54% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12).

Anders is rated at 1106 — 239 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Eryk Anders.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meerschaert at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Anders, but our model sees only 46%. That 9-point gap favoring Meerschaert is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Devin Clark (8-8). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Spann is rated at 1116 — 172 points above Clark's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spann's wrestler game against Clark's striker approach. Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Clark brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spann throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Spann over Devin Clark.** The model gives Spann a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Spann, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Clark is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Mike Davis (4-2) taking on Thomas Gifford (0-1). Gifford will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Davis is rated at 1249 — 428 points above Gifford's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gifford throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gifford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Davis over Thomas Gifford.** We're leaning Davis here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Max Griffin (8-9). Griffin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Griffin is rated at 1152 — 283 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Griffin over Alex Morono.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Griffin at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Morono at 45% implied while our model sees 50% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11).

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 249 points above Elliott's 1241. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Figueiredo's knockout artist game against Elliott's wrestler approach. Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Tim Elliott.** The model gives Figueiredo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Figueiredo, but our model sees only 57%. That 5-point gap favoring Elliott is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Andre Ewell (4-4). Ewell will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 593 points above Ewell's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vera's knockout artist game against Ewell's all-rounder approach. Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Ewell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ewell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marlon Vera over Andre Ewell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vera at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Miguel Baeza (3-3) taking on Hector Aldana (0-2). Baeza is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Baeza at 850 versus Aldana at 764. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miguel Baeza over Hector Aldana.** The model is firm on this one: Baeza at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Baeza at 69% implied while our model sees 83% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Andrew Sanchez (5-4).

Vettori is rated at 1280 — 347 points above Sanchez's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vettori's all-rounder game against Sanchez's striker approach. Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Andrew Sanchez.** The model is firm on this one: Vettori at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Vettori at 77% implied while our model sees 84% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Lauren Mueller (1-2).

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 242 points above Mueller's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mueller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Lauren Mueller.** We're leaning Aldrich here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.