UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7).

Cannonier is rated at 1426 — 309 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cannonier's striker game against Hermansson's wrestler approach. Cannonier brings a versatile approach, while Hermansson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Jared Cannonier.** We're leaning Hermansson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Cannonier at 28% implied while our model sees 33% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Madsen (4-1) taking on Danilo Belluardo (0-1). Belluardo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Madsen is rated at 1112 — 338 points above Belluardo's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belluardo throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Belluardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danilo Belluardo over Mark Madsen.** We're leaning Belluardo here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Gunnar Nelson (10-5).

Burns carries a modest Elo edge (1379 to 1310), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Gilbert Burns.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nelson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Burns, but our model sees only 47%. That 5-point gap favoring Nelson is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6).

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 359 points above Cutelaba's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cutelaba brings a versatile approach, while Jr. is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Jr. the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Khalil Rountree Jr..** We're leaning Cutelaba here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 351 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Oleksiejczuk's striker approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Ovince Saint Preux.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oleksiejczuk at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9).

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 349 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dalby's striker game against Oliveira's all-rounder approach. Dalby brings a versatile approach, while Oliveira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dalby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Dalby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Nicolas Dalby.** We're leaning Oliveira here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 44% for Dalby, but our model sees only 34%. That 10-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features John Phillips (1-4) taking on Alen Amedovski (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Phillips at 792 versus Amedovski at 649. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Amedovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Phillips over Alen Amedovski.** The model gives Phillips a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Phillips at 46% implied while our model sees 56% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Makhmud Muradov (4-2) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-6).

Muradov is rated at 1179 — 391 points above Chirico's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muradov's wrestler game against Chirico's striker approach. Muradov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Chirico brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chirico throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Muradov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Makhmud Muradov over Alessio Di Chirico.** The model gives Muradov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Muradov, but our model sees only 56%. That 4-point gap favoring Chirico is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Ismail Naurdiev (3-3) taking on Siyar Bahadurzada (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Naurdiev at 1183 versus Bahadurzada at 1086. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Naurdiev's striker game against Bahadurzada's all-rounder approach. Naurdiev brings a versatile approach, while Bahadurzada is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahadurzada throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bahadurzada is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ismail Naurdiev over Siyar Bahadurzada.** We're leaning Naurdiev here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Naurdiev at 67% implied while our model sees 70% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Brandon Davis (2-6). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Chikadze is rated at 1150 — 325 points above Davis's 825. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Davis over Giga Chikadze.** The model gives Davis a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lina Lansberg (4-6) taking on Macy Chiasson (8-4). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Chiasson is rated at 1145 — 274 points above Lansberg's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lansberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lansberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Lina Lansberg.** The model is firm on this one: Chiasson at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Marc Diakiese (7-7) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2).

Diakiese is rated at 1050 — 152 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Diakiese's striker game against Vannata's all-rounder approach. Diakiese brings a versatile approach, while Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Vannata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Vannata has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Lando Vannata.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diakiese at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Diakiese, but our model sees only 52%. That 8-point gap favoring Vannata is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jack Shore (6-2) taking on Nohelin Hernandez (0-1).

Shore is rated at 1070 — 203 points above Hernandez's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Shore over Nohelin Hernandez.** The model gives Shore a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Shore, but our model sees only 64%. That 3-point gap favoring Hernandez is worth watching.