UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Saturday, September 7, 2019·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Khabib Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R3)
Nurmagomedov 84%16% Poirier
STRONGMarket: 78% (+5.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Nurmagomedov)
Lightweight✗
Paul Felder won by Decision - Split (R3)
Felder 48%52% Barboza
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Barboza)
Lightweight✓
Islam Makhachev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Makhachev 89%11% Ramos
STRONGMarket: 77% (+12.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Ramos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Makhachev)
Heavyweight✓
Curtis Blaydes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Blaydes 89%11% Abdurakhimov
STRONGMarket: 82% (+7.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Blaydes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.7(favors Blaydes)
Lightweight✓
Diego Ferreira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ferreira 58%42% Taisumov
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Taisumov)
Women's Flyweight✗
Joanne Wood won by Decision - Split (R3)
Wood 19%81% Lee
STRONGMarket: 32% (-12.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -193(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Lee)
Featherweight
Tukhugov 64%36% Murphy
LEANMarket: 73% (-8.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +101(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Tukhugov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Tukhugov)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Sarah Moras won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moras 47%53% Jojua
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -170(favors Jojua)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Moras)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Moras)
Lightweight✓
Ottman Azaitar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Azaitar 63%37% Packalen
LEANMarket: 65% (-2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +45(favors Azaitar)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Packalen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Packalen)
Welterweight✓
Belal Muhammad won by Submission (R3)
Muhammad 87%13% Sato
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Sato)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Muhammad)
Welterweight✗
Muslim Salikhov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Salikhov 46%54% Taleb
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+0.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Taleb)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Taleb)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Taleb)
Middleweight✓
Omari Akhmedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Akhmedov 54%46% Cummings
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (+1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Akhmedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Akhmedov)
Lightweight✓
Don Madge won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Madge 53%47% Ziam
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-9.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Madge)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Madge)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ziam)