UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025·Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✗
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Usman 25%75% Buckley
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Buckley)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Buckley)
Women's Flyweight✓
Rose Namajunas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Namajunas 56%44% Maverick
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +114(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Namajunas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Maverick)
Middleweight✓
Edmen Shahbazyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Shahbazyan 53%47% Petroski
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -175(favors Petroski)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Shahbazyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Petroski)
Bantamweight✓
Raoni Barcelos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barcelos 65%35% Garbrandt
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Barcelos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Barcelos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Barcelos)
Middleweight
Abdul-Malik 79%21% Brundage
STRONG
→Elo gap: +338(favors Abdul-Malik)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Abdul-Malik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Brundage)
Light Heavyweight✗
Alonzo Menifield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Menifield 27%73% Sy
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +32(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Sy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Sy)
Light Heavyweight
Craig 42%58% Bellato
LEAN
→Elo gap: +12(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Bellato)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Bellato)
Welterweight✓
Michael Chiesa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chiesa 57%43% McGee
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +426(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors McGee)
Bantamweight✓
Malcolm Wellmaker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wellmaker 69%31% Moutinho
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +353(favors Wellmaker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Moutinho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moutinho)
Flyweight✓
Jose Ochoa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ochoa 55%45% Durden
LEAN
→Elo gap: -126(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Durden)
Bantamweight✓
Ricky Simon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Simon 56%44% Smotherman
LEAN
→Elo gap: +276(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Smotherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Simon)
Welterweight✓
Phil Rowe won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rowe 53%47% Loosa
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +172(favors Rowe)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Loosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Loosa)
Women's Flyweight✓
Jamey-Lyn Horth won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horth 76%24% Demopoulos
STRONG
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Horth)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Horth)