UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Thiago Santos (14-9). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 869 points above Santos's 1292. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Thiago Santos.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Jones at 84% implied while our model sees 92% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Holly Holm (8-6).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 509 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Holly Holm.** The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 78% implied while our model sees 92% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Ben Askren (1-1).

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 402 points above Askren's 1177. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Askren is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Ben Askren.** The model gives Masvidal a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Masvidal at 34% implied while our model sees 60% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Luke Rockhold (6-4).

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 276 points above Rockhold's 1302. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rockhold throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luke Rockhold over Jan Blachowicz.** We're leaning Rockhold here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 351 points above Sanchez's 1139. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Chiesa's wrestler game against Sanchez's striker approach. Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Diego Sanchez.** The model is firm on this one: Chiesa at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Chiesa at 77% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Gilbert Melendez (1-5). Melendez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Allen is rated at 1468 — 492 points above Melendez's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Allen's all-rounder game against Melendez's striker approach. Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Melendez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Melendez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Melendez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arnold Allen over Gilbert Melendez.** The model is firm on this one: Allen at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 74% implied while our model sees 83% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Nohelin Hernandez (0-1).

Vera is rated at 1460 — 593 points above Hernandez's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marlon Vera over Nohelin Hernandez.** The model is firm on this one: Vera at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Vera at 80% implied while our model sees 86% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Claudia Gadelha (7-4) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1).

Gadelha is rated at 1187 — 214 points above Markos's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Randa Markos.** We're leaning Gadelha here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gadelha at 65% implied while our model sees 73% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Alejandro Perez (8-3-1).

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 466 points above Perez's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Yadong's all-rounder game against Perez's striker approach. Yadong is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Perez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yadong throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yadong is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Alejandro Perez.** We're leaning Yadong here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Jack Marshman (3-4). Shahbazyan is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 399 points above Marshman's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shahbazyan's all-rounder game against Marshman's striker approach. Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Marshman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshman throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shahbazyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.7 more per 15 minutes. Marshman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Jack Marshman.** The model is firm on this one: Shahbazyan at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Shahbazyan at 84% implied while our model sees 92% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Chance Rencountre (2-1) taking on Ismail Naurdiev (3-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Rencountre.

There's a real Elo separation here: Naurdiev at 1183 versus Rencountre at 1053. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Naurdiev throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rencountre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ismail Naurdiev over Chance Rencountre.** The model is firm on this one: Naurdiev at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julia Avila (3-2) taking on Pannie Kianzad (5-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Avila at 933, Kianzad at 943. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Avila's all-rounder game against Kianzad's striker approach. Avila is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kianzad brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kianzad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Avila has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julia Avila over Pannie Kianzad.** We're leaning Avila here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.