UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-4) taking on Renato Moicano (12-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Moicano.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jung at 1528, Moicano at 1542. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renato Moicano over Chan Sung Jung.** The model is firm on this one: Moicano at 76%. The market implies 35% for Jung, but our model sees only 24%. That 12-point gap favoring Moicano is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 421 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's all-rounder game against Barberena's knockout artist approach. Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barberena is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryan Barberena over Randy Brown.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barberena at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 31% implied while our model sees 50% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Andre Ewell (4-4) taking on Anderson Dos Santos (1-2). Ewell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ewell at 867, Santos at 877. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ewell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Ewell over Anderson Dos Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ewell at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Andrea Lee (5-8) taking on Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1).

Rosa is rated at 1036 — 172 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rosa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrea Lee over Montana De La Rosa.** The model gives Lee a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Lee, but our model sees only 56%. That 6-point gap favoring Rosa is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-6). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Holland is rated at 1257 — 469 points above Chirico's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holland's all-rounder game against Chirico's striker approach. Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chirico brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Alessio Di Chirico.** The model is firm on this one: Holland at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 67% implied while our model sees 77% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Kevin Aguilar (2-3).

Ige is rated at 1235 — 366 points above Aguilar's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ige's all-rounder game against Aguilar's striker approach. Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aguilar brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Kevin Aguilar.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ige at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ige at 43% implied while our model sees 52% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ashley Yoder (3-7) taking on Syuri Kondo (1-2). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kondo carries a modest Elo edge (798 to 766), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kondo throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kondo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Syuri Kondo over Ashley Yoder.** We're leaning Kondo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 54% for Yoder, but our model sees only 34%. That 21-point gap favoring Kondo is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Luis Pena (4-3) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7). Pena is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Pena is rated at 1146 — 278 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luis Pena over Matt Wiman.** The model is firm on this one: Pena at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Pena at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Allen Crowder (1-1).

Rozenstruik is rated at 1385 — 539 points above Crowder's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rozenstruik throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Crowder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Crowder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Allen Crowder.** The model gives Rozenstruik a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Molly McCann (7-6) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 976 versus McCann at 834. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is McCann's all-rounder game against Silva's knockout artist approach. McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Molly McCann over Ariane da Silva.** The model gives McCann a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Deron Winn (2-2) taking on Eric Spicely (2-4). Spicely is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Winn is rated at 891 — 163 points above Spicely's 727. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spicely throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Spicely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Winn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Deron Winn over Eric Spicely.** The model is firm on this one: Winn at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Winn at 75% implied while our model sees 80% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.