UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Saturday, June 8, 2019·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 12/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Bantamweight✓
Henry Cejudo won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cejudo 57%43% Moraes
LEANMarket: 42% (+15.1% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Cejudo)
Women's Flyweight✓
Valentina Shevchenko won by KO/TKO (R2)
Shevchenko 89%11% Eye
STRONGMarket: 89% (-0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +242(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Shevchenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Shevchenko)
Lightweight✓
Tony Ferguson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ferguson 78%22% Cerrone
STRONGMarket: 66% (+12.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +173(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Cerrone)
Bantamweight✓
Petr Yan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yan 79%21% Rivera
STRONGMarket: 76% (+3.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Yan)
Heavyweight✗
Blagoy Ivanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ivanov 42%58% Tuivasa
LEANMarket: 41% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -81(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tuivasa)
Women's Strawweight✓
Tatiana Suarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Suarez 83%17% Nunes
STRONGMarket: 85% (-1.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.1(favors Suarez)
Bantamweight✓
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 78%22% Munhoz
STRONGMarket: 59% (+19.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -116(favors Munhoz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Sterling)
Women's Strawweight✓
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grasso 65%35% Kowalkiewicz
CONFIDENTMarket: 51% (+14.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -99(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Grasso)
Featherweight✓
Calvin Kattar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kattar 58%42% Lamas
LEANMarket: 61% (-3.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lamas)
Women's Strawweight✓
Yan Xiaonan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Xiaonan 63%37% Hill
LEANMarket: 67% (-3.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +256(favors Xiaonan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Hill)
Middleweight✓
Darren Stewart won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stewart 61%39% Lewis
LEANMarket: 39% (+22.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +101(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Stewart)
Bantamweight✓
Eddie Wineland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Wineland 55%45% Popov
LEANMarket: 58% (-2.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +158(favors Wineland)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Popov)
Women's Flyweight✓
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 60%40% Wood
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Wood)