UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Saturday, May 4, 2019·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
Donald Cerrone won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Cerrone 43%57% Iaquinta
Over/UnderOver 73%
Under 27%Over 73%
LEANMarket: 45% (-2.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -13(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Cerrone)
MiddleweightMISS
Derek Brunson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brunson 46%54% Theodorou
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Brunson)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Burgos 58%42% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 62% (-3.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -257(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Swanson)
BantamweightHIT
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvalishvili 56%44% Katona
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 61% (-4.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -378(favors Katona)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.3(favors Dvalishvili)
HeavyweightHIT
Walt Harris won by KO/TKO (R1)
Harris 57%43% Spivac
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +219(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Harris)
MiddleweightMISS
Andrew Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 48%52% Barriault
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-11.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Barriault)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Sanchez)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Macy Chiasson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Chiasson 76%24% Moras
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 85% (-8.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +388(favors Chiasson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Chiasson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Moras)
BantamweightHIT
Vince Morales won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morales 63%37% Zahabi
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zahabi)
WelterweightHIT
Nordine Taleb won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taleb 84%16% Prepolec
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +117(favors Taleb)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Taleb)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Taleb)
FeatherweightHIT
Matt Sayles won by Submission (R3)
Sayles 69%31% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -119(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Sayles)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nelson)
HeavyweightMISS
Arjan Bhullar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bhullar 48%52% Adams
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -66(favors Adams)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Adams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Adams)
BantamweightHIT
Cole Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 56%44% Gagnon
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 46% (+9.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -129(favors Gagnon)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Gagnon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Gagnon)