UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7).

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 339 points above Oleinik's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Overeem is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Oleinik is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Overeem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleinik throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Oleinik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Aleksei Oleinik.** We're leaning Overeem here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Arman Tsarukyan (9-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Makhachev.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 374 points above Tsarukyan's 1836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one, while Tsarukyan has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Makhachev's submission artist game against Tsarukyan's striker approach. Makhachev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makhachev throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Tsarukyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Arman Tsarukyan.** The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 74% implied while our model sees 79% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Marcelo Golm (1-2). Pavlovich will look to use a 9-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pavlovich is rated at 1663 — 879 points above Golm's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Golm throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Golm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Golm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Marcelo Golm.** The model gives Pavlovich a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Roxanne Modafferi (4-7) taking on Antonina Shevchenko (3-4).

Shevchenko carries a modest Elo edge (1027 to 979), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Modafferi's striker game against Shevchenko's wrestler approach. Modafferi brings a versatile approach, while Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shevchenko throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Antonina Shevchenko over Roxanne Modafferi.** The model gives Shevchenko a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Modafferi at 27% implied while our model sees 38% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Alen Amedovski (0-3). Jotko is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 572 points above Amedovski's 649. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jotko throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Amedovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Alen Amedovski.** We're leaning Jotko here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 66% implied while our model sees 69% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-6). Choi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Evloev is rated at 1715 — 894 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Evloev's wrestler game against Choi's striker approach. Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Choi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: SeungWoo Choi over Movsar Evloev.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sultan Aliev (1-2) taking on Keita Nakamura (4-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aliev at 1088 versus Nakamura at 987. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nakamura throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Keita Nakamura over Sultan Aliev.** The model gives Nakamura a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Aliev, but our model sees only 42%. That 10-point gap favoring Nakamura is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Yakovlev (3-5) taking on Alex Da Silva (1-2). There's a 7-inch height gap favoring Yakovlev.

Yakovlev carries a modest Elo edge (970 to 930), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yakovlev throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yakovlev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Yakovlev over Alex Da Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yakovlev at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 224 points above Abdurakhimov's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Shamil Abdurakhimov.** The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Abdurakhimov, but our model sees only 39%. That 5-point gap favoring Tybura is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2-3). Oleksiejczuk will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 492 points above Antigulov's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oleksiejczuk's striker game against Antigulov's submission artist approach. Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach, while Antigulov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Antigulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.7 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Gadzhimurad Antigulov.** We're leaning Oleksiejczuk here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Oleksiejczuk at 66% implied while our model sees 71% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Magomed Mustafaev (3-1) taking on Rafael Fiziev (7-4).

Fiziev is rated at 1312 — 162 points above Mustafaev's 1151. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mustafaev throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fiziev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over Magomed Mustafaev.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fiziev at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 50% for Mustafaev, but our model sees only 45%. That 5-point gap favoring Fiziev is worth watching.