UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Sean O'Malley (10-3). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dvalishvili at 1867 versus O'Malley at 1748. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dvalishvili's wrestler game against O'Malley's striker approach. Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while O'Malley brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Sean O'Malley.** We're leaning Dvalishvili here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Kayla Harrison (2-0) taking on Julianna Pena (8-3). Pena will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Harrison at 1470 versus Pena at 1323. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harrison throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Harrison is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Harrison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kayla Harrison over Julianna Pena.** The model gives Harrison a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Pyfer (5-1) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Pyfer is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pyfer is rated at 1530 — 190 points above Gastelum's 1340. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyfer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Pyfer over Kelvin Gastelum.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pyfer at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Patchy Mix (0-1).

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 639 points above Mix's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Mix has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mario Bautista over Patchy Mix.** We're leaning Bautista here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Vicente Luque (16-7). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Holland at 1257, Luque at 1250. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Luque has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Luque at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (8-1) taking on Bruno Silva (4-4).

Van is rated at 1678 — 475 points above Silva's 1203. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Van rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Van brings a versatile approach, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Van is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Van has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joshua Van over Bruno Silva.** The model is firm on this one: Van at 78%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (5-0) taking on Brendson Ribeiro (2-3). Ribeiro is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Murzakanov is rated at 1573 — 651 points above Ribeiro's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murzakanov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Murzakanov's striker game against Ribeiro's wrestler approach. Murzakanov brings a versatile approach, while Ribeiro looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murzakanov throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Murzakanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Azamat Murzakanov over Brendson Ribeiro.** The model gives Murzakanov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Serghei Spivac (8-6).

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 282 points above Spivac's 1355. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Acosta is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spivac is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spivac the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Serghei Spivac.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Acosta at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Andreas Gustafsson (1-0) taking on Khaos Williams (6-3). Williams will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Williams carries a modest Elo edge (1159 to 1106), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gustafsson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khaos Williams over Andreas Gustafsson.** We're leaning Williams here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Wang Cong (3-1) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7).

Cong is rated at 1242 — 266 points above Silva's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cong throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cong is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wang Cong over Ariane da Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cong at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features JooSang Yoo (1-0) taking on Jeka Saragih (1-2).

Yoo is rated at 1014 — 217 points above Saragih's 797. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saragih throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Saragih is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Yoo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JooSang Yoo over Jeka Saragih.** The model gives Yoo a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Quillan Salkilld (3-0) taking on Yanal Ashmouz (2-1). Salkilld is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Salkilld is rated at 1406 — 392 points above Ashmouz's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salkilld rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salkilld throws significantly more leather — a 16.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ashmouz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Salkilld has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Quillan Salkilld over Yanal Ashmouz.** The model gives Salkilld a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features MarQuel Mederos (2-0) taking on Mark Choinski (0-0).

Mederos is rated at 1172 — 230 points above Choinski's 942. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mederos throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Choinski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Choinski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: MarQuel Mederos over Mark Choinski.** The model gives Mederos a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.