UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 706 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Gaethje over Edson Barboza.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gaethje at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gaethje at 47% implied while our model sees 53% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on David Branch (4-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hermansson at 1117, Branch at 1136. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Hermansson's submission artist game against Branch's striker approach. Hermansson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Branch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over David Branch.** The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hermansson at 56% implied while our model sees 65% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Emmett at 1356 versus Johnson at 1245. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Emmett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Emmett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Johnson over Josh Emmett.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9).

Waterson-Gomez carries a modest Elo edge (908 to 871), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Waterson-Gomez's all-rounder game against Kowalkiewicz's striker approach. Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kowalkiewicz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** The model gives Kowalkiewicz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Craig at 1045, Nzechukwu at 1071. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Craig the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Paul Craig.** The model gives Nzechukwu a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Craig at 37% implied while our model sees 43% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sodiq Yusuff (6-3) taking on Sheymon Moraes (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Yusuff at 1113 versus Moraes at 976. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 7.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Sheymon Moraes.** The model gives Yusuff a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Jessica Aguilar (1-3). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1059 — 232 points above Aguilar's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Jessica Aguilar.** We're leaning Rodriguez here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Desmond Green (3-3) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12). Green is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Green is rated at 1221 — 372 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Desmond Green over Ross Pearson.** The model is firm on this one: Green at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Green at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Kevin Aguilar (2-3) taking on Enrique Barzola (6-3). Aguilar will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 201 points above Aguilar's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aguilar's striker game against Barzola's wrestler approach. Aguilar brings a versatile approach, while Barzola looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Kevin Aguilar.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barzola at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Aguilar at 45% implied while our model sees 49% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Holland is rated at 1257 — 390 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Gerald Meerschaert.** We're leaning Holland here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 66% implied while our model sees 70% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Casey Kenney (5-2) taking on Ray Borg (7-4). Kenney is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kenney carries a modest Elo edge (1234 to 1172), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Kenney is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Borg looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Borg the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borg throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Kenney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ray Borg over Casey Kenney.** The model is firm on this one: Borg at 77%. The market implies 31% for Kenney, but our model sees only 23%. That 8-point gap favoring Borg is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-5) taking on Sabina Mazo (3-3). Mazo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moroz at 952 versus Mazo at 804. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Mazo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sabina Mazo over Maryna Moroz.** We're leaning Mazo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 41% for Moroz, but our model sees only 34%. That 7-point gap favoring Mazo is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Perez (7-6) taking on Mark De La Rosa (2-4).

Perez is rated at 1293 — 558 points above Rosa's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Perez over Mark De La Rosa.** The model gives Perez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.