UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Saturday, March 23, 2019·Nashville, Tennessee, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Anthony Pettis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pettis 22%78% Thompson
STRONGMarket: 23% (-1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Pettis)
HeavyweightHIT
Curtis Blaydes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blaydes 77%23% Willis
STRONGMarket: 71% (+6.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +139(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Willis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Blaydes)
LightweightHIT
John Makdessi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Makdessi 70%30% Pinedo
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-3.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +71(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Pinedo)
FlyweightMISS
Jussier Formiga won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Formiga 46%54% Figueiredo
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+3.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Figueiredo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Figueiredo)
FeatherweightHIT
Luis Pena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pena 67%33% Peterson
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-0.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Peterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Pena)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Maycee Barber won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barber 66%34% Aldrich
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.0(favors Barber)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Barber)
FeatherweightHIT
Bryce Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 64%36% Moffett
LEANMarket: 42% (+21.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +85(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Moffett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Mitchell)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by KO/TKO (R1)
Vera 76%24% Saenz
STRONGMarket: 61% (+15.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +173(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Saenz)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jennifer Maia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maia 52%48% Davis
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+10.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Davis)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Randa Markos won by Submission (R1)
Markos 59%41% Hill
LEANMarket: 43% (+16.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Markos)
BantamweightHIT
Chris Gutierrez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gutierrez 77%23% MacDonald
STRONGMarket: 71% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -77(favors MacDonald)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Gutierrez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors MacDonald)
FlyweightMISS
Jordan Espinosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Espinosa 37%63% Shelton
LEANMarket: 42% (-4.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Shelton)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Shelton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Shelton)