UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Sunday, February 17, 2019·Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✗
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ngannou 40%60% Velasquez
LEANMarket: 35% (+4.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Velasquez)
Lightweight✗
Paul Felder won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Felder 37%63% Vick
LEANMarket: 48% (-11.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Vick)
Women's Strawweight✓
Cynthia Calvillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Calvillo 74%26% Casey
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Calvillo)
Featherweight✓
Kron Gracie won by Submission (R1)
Gracie 63%37% Caceres
LEANMarket: 71% (-7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -86(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Caceres)
Welterweight✓
Vicente Luque won by KO/TKO (R3)
Luque 89%11% Barberena
STRONGMarket: 80% (+8.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Luque)
Featherweight✗
Andre Fili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fili 34%66% Jury
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (-9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -127(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Fili)
Bantamweight✓
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 54%46% Rivera
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+9.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Sterling)
Bantamweight✓
Manny Bermudez won by Submission (R1)
Bermudez 62%38% Lopez
LEANMarket: 64% (-1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +61(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Lopez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Bermudez)
Women's Flyweight✓
Andrea Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 69%31% Evans-Smith
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Evans-Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Lee)
Lightweight✓
Nik Lentz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lentz 55%45% Holtzman
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+14.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Holtzman)
Bantamweight✗
Luke Sanders won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sanders 49%51% Barao
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-8.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Barao)
Women's Strawweight✓
Emily Whitmire won by Submission (R1)
Whitmire 62%38% Albu
LEAN
→Elo gap: -141(favors Albu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Albu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Albu)