UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Saturday, February 2, 2019·Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil
Model Record: 6/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Bantamweight✓
Marlon Moraes won by Submission (R1)
Moraes 51%49% Assuncao
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-9.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Moraes)
Featherweight✗
Jose Aldo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Aldo 30%70% Moicano
CONFIDENTMarket: 43% (-13.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +249(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Moicano)
Welterweight✓
Demian Maia won by Submission (R1)
Maia 66%34% Good
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +306(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Good)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Maia)
Lightweight✗
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 50%50% Teymur
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-2.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Oliveira)
Light Heavyweight✓
Johnny Walker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Walker 71%29% Ledet
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+5.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +101(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ledet)
Women's Strawweight✓
Livinha Souza won by Decision - Split (R3)
Souza 65%35% Frota
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +72(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.4(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +11.1(favors Souza)
Middleweight✗
Markus Perez won by Submission (R2)
Perez 43%57% Hernandez
LEANMarket: 39% (+4.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Perez)
Women's Flyweight✗
Mara Romero Borella won by Decision - Split (R3)
Borella 47%53% Santos
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Borella)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Borella)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Borella)
Welterweight✗
Thiago Alves won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alves 29%71% Griffin
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-5.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Alves)
Heavyweight✓
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rozenstruik 54%46% Albini
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +26(favors Rozenstruik)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Albini)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Albini)
Featherweight✗
Geraldo de Freitas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Freitas 37%63% Colares
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Colares)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Colares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Colares)
Bantamweight✗
Said Nurmagomedov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nurmagomedov 46%54% Ramos
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+1.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -228(favors Ramos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Ramos)
Flyweight✓
Rogerio Bontorin won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bontorin 51%49% Magomed
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +25(favors Bontorin)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Magomed)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Magomed)