UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Diego Lopes (6-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Lopes.

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 210 points above Lopes's 1614. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's striker game against Lopes's all-rounder approach. Volkanovski brings a versatile approach, while Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopes throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Lopes over Alexander Volkanovski.** The model gives Lopes a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9).

Denis is rated at 1743 — 293 points above Hooker's 1450. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Denis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Hooker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis over Dan Hooker.** We're leaning Denis here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Mauricio Ruffy (3-1) taking on Rafael Fiziev (7-4). Ruffy is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ruffy at 1462 versus Fiziev at 1312. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiziev throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Ruffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy over Rafael Fiziev.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ruffy at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tallison Teixeira (1-1) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Teixeira is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Teixeira at 1226 versus Tuivasa at 1107. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuivasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tallison Teixeira over Tai Tuivasa.** We're leaning Teixeira here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Quillan Salkilld (3-0) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-6).

Salkilld is rated at 1406 — 459 points above Mullarkey's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salkilld rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salkilld throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Salkilld is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Mullarkey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Quillan Salkilld over Jamie Mullarkey.** We're leaning Salkilld here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Billy Elekana (2-1) taking on Junior Tafa (2-4).

Elekana is rated at 1188 — 360 points above Tafa's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elekana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Billy Elekana over Junior Tafa.** The model gives Elekana a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cam Rowston (1-0) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6). Rowston is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Rowston is rated at 1224 — 354 points above Brundage's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowston throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Brundage has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cam Rowston over Cody Brundage.** The model gives Rowston a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacob Malkoun (4-3) taking on Torrez Finney (1-0).

Malkoun is rated at 1322 — 311 points above Finney's 1011. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Finney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Malkoun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Torrez Finney over Jacob Malkoun.** The model gives Finney a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jonathan Micallef (1-0) taking on Oban Elliott (3-1). Micallef will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Micallef is rated at 1218 — 220 points above Elliott's 997. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Micallef throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Micallef has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oban Elliott over Jonathan Micallef.** The model gives Elliott a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Kaan Ofli (1-2) taking on Yizha (1-2). Yizha will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ofli is rated at 1085 — 157 points above Yizha's 928. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yizha throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Yizha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Ofli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yizha over Kaan Ofli.** The model gives Yizha a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Dom Mar Fan (0-0) taking on Sangwook Kim (0-0). Fan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fan is rated at 1085 — 170 points above Kim's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dom Mar Fan over Sangwook Kim.** The model gives Fan a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Keiichiro Nakamura (0-0) taking on Sebastian Szalay (0-0). Nakamura is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Nakamura is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Szalay's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Szalay throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Szalay is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Szalay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Keiichiro Nakamura over Sebastian Szalay.** The model gives Nakamura a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Lawrence Lui (0-0) taking on Sulangrangbo (0-0). Lui will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lui at 1068 versus Sulangrangbo at 932. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sulangrangbo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sulangrangbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sulangrangbo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sulangrangbo over Lawrence Lui.** The model gives Sulangrangbo a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.