UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1191 versus Tuivasa at 1107. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Junior Dos Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tuivasa at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Tyson Pedro (6-4). Pedro is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pedro at 1015 versus Rua at 876. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rua's striker game against Pedro's submission artist approach. Rua brings a versatile approach, while Pedro is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Pedro over Mauricio Rua.** We're leaning Pedro here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rua at 19% implied while our model sees 25% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Willis (4-0) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). Willis is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Willis at 1256 versus Hunt at 1169. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Willis rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Willis throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Willis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Willis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Willis over Mark Hunt.** We're leaning Willis here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Willis at 53% implied while our model sees 72% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martin at 1419 versus Matthews at 1295. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Matthews has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Jake Matthews.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martin at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Sodiq Yusuff (6-3) taking on Suman Mokhtarian (0-1).

Yusuff is rated at 1113 — 338 points above Mokhtarian's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mokhtarian throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokhtarian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mokhtarian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Suman Mokhtarian.** The model is firm on this one: Yusuff at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Yusuff at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Crute at 1151 versus Craig at 1045. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Crute has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimmy Crute over Paul Craig.** The model gives Crute a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Aleksei Kunchenko (2-1) taking on Yushin Okami (14-6). Okami is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kunchenko carries a modest Elo edge (1107 to 1061), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kunchenko throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Kunchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Aleksei Kunchenko.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Okami at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-5) taking on Ben Nguyen (4-2).

Reis carries a modest Elo edge (1083 to 1036), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nguyen throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Nguyen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Nguyen over Wilson Reis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nguyen at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Reis at 43% implied while our model sees 48% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Keita Nakamura (4-6) taking on Salim Touahri (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nakamura at 987 versus Touahri at 854. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Touahri throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Keita Nakamura over Salim Touahri.** The model gives Nakamura a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Kai Kara-France (8-4) taking on Elias Garcia (0-1).

Kara-France is rated at 1351 — 549 points above Garcia's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kai Kara-France over Elias Garcia.** The model is firm on this one: Kara-France at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Kara-France at 77% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Christos Giagos (6-7) taking on Mizuto Hirota (1-4-1). Giagos is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Giagos is rated at 940 — 163 points above Hirota's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Giagos's wrestler game against Hirota's striker approach. Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hirota brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hirota throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hirota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Hirota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christos Giagos over Mizuto Hirota.** The model is firm on this one: Giagos at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Giagos at 76% implied while our model sees 84% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Ismagulov (5-1) taking on Alex Gorgees (0-0). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Gorgees.

Ismagulov is rated at 1202 — 287 points above Gorgees's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gorgees throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorgees is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gorgees has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Damir Ismagulov over Alex Gorgees.** The model is firm on this one: Ismagulov at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.