UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Morales (6-0) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8). Morales is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Morales is rated at 1853 — 474 points above Burns's 1379. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Morales rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Morales's striker game against Burns's all-rounder approach. Morales brings a versatile approach, while Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Morales over Gilbert Burns.** We're leaning Morales here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Mairon Santos (3-0) taking on Sodiq Yusuff (6-3).

Santos is rated at 1376 — 263 points above Yusuff's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yusuff is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mairon Santos over Sodiq Yusuff.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nursulton Ruziboev (3-1) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Ruziboev.

Ruziboev is rated at 1327 — 315 points above Stoltzfus's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stoltzfus throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ruziboev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev over Dustin Stoltzfus.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ruziboev at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (6-2) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Costa is rated at 1550 — 270 points above Erosa's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Costa rides a 5-fight win streak into this one, while Erosa has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Costa's wrestler game against Erosa's knockout artist approach. Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Erosa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Julian Erosa.** The model gives Costa a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Gabe Green (2-3) taking on Matheus Camilo (0-1). Green will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Green at 1082 versus Camilo at 968. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Camilo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matheus Camilo over Gabe Green.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Camilo at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Thiago Moises (8-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gordon at 1209 versus Moises at 1124. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Gordon's striker game against Moises's wrestler approach. Gordon brings a versatile approach, while Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Moises over Jared Gordon.** The model gives Moises a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Yadier del Valle (2-0) taking on Connor Matthews (0-2).

Valle is rated at 1076 — 370 points above Matthews's 706. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Valle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yadier del Valle over Connor Matthews.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Valle at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Luana Santos (4-1) taking on Tainara Lisboa (2-1).

Santos is rated at 1277 — 401 points above Lisboa's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lisboa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luana Santos over Tainara Lisboa.** We're leaning Santos here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Denise Gomes (5-2) taking on Elise Reed (4-4).

Gomes is rated at 1370 — 438 points above Reed's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gomes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Gomes's all-rounder game against Reed's striker approach. Gomes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Reed brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomes throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Reed has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Denise Gomes over Elise Reed.** The model gives Gomes a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features HyunSung Park (3-1) taking on Carlos Hernandez (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Park at 1010 versus Hernandez at 913. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Hernandez over HyunSung Park.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Luana Pinheiro (3-3).

Pennington is rated at 1206 — 292 points above Pinheiro's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinheiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luana Pinheiro over Tecia Pennington.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pinheiro at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.