UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Saturday, July 14, 2018·Boise, Idaho, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Junior Dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Santos 53%47% Ivanov
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +517(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
WelterweightHIT
Sage Northcutt won by KO/TKO (R2)
Northcutt 67%33% Ottow
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+10.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Northcutt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Northcutt)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricky Glenn won by Decision - Split (R3)
Glenn 50%50% Bermudez
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Bermudez)
WelterweightMISS
Niko Price won by KO/TKO (R2)
Price 49%51% Brown
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+3.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Price)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Price)
FeatherweightMISS
Chad Mendes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mendes 45%55% Jury
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-15.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Mendes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Mendes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Mendes)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Cat Zingano won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zingano 52%48% Reneau
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+2.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Reneau)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Reneau)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Zingano)
BantamweightHIT
Alejandro Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 61%39% Wineland
LEANMarket: 63% (-1.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +139(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Perez)
FeatherweightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkanovski 62%38% Elkins
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Volkanovski)
FlyweightHIT
Said Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Nurmagomedov 54%46% Scoggins
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+1.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Scoggins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Scoggins)
FeatherweightMISS
Raoni Barcelos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Barcelos 45%55% Holobaugh
LEANMarket: 39% (+5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +48(favors Barcelos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Holobaugh)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Holobaugh)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Liz Carmouche won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Carmouche 50%50% Maia
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-2.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Carmouche)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Carmouche)
FlyweightHIT
Mark De La Rosa won by Submission (R2)
Rosa 55%45% Garcia
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -122(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Garcia)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Jessica Aguilar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aguilar 38%62% Esquibel
LEANMarket: 40% (-1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -79(favors Esquibel)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Esquibel)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Aguilar)