UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Friday, June 1, 2018·Utica, New York, USA·12 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
BantamweightMISS
Marlon Moraes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Moraes 49%51% Rivera
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Rivera)
LightweightHIT
Gregor Gillespie won by Submission (R2)
Gillespie 88%12% Pichel
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+7.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Gillespie)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Gillespie)
HeavyweightHIT
Walt Harris won by KO/TKO (R2)
Harris 66%34% Spitz
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +50(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Spitz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Spitz)
WelterweightHIT
Ben Saunders won by KO/TKO (R1)
Saunders 61%39% Ellenberger
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 40% (+20.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -145(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Saunders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ellenberger)
FeatherweightHIT
Julio Arce won by Submission (R3)
Arce 77%23% Teymur
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 63% (+13.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +255(favors Arce)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Arce)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Teymur)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvey 67%33% Villante
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+9.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +181(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Alvey)
Prelims
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sijara Eubanks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eubanks 60%40% Murphy
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 65% (-5.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +10(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Murphy)
LightweightHIT
David Teymur won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Teymur 80%20% Lentz
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+7.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +203(favors Teymur)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Lentz)
WelterweightHIT
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muhammad 84%16% Rencountre
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +410(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Muhammad)
LightweightHIT
Desmond Green won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Green 81%19% Tibau
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -173(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Tibau)
BantamweightHIT
Nathaniel Wood won by Submission (R2)
Wood 79%21% Eduardo
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+9.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Eduardo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Eduardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Eduardo)
FlyweightMISS
Jose Torres won by KO/TKO (R2)
Torres 41%59% Brooks
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 57% (-15.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -14(favors Brooks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Brooks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.0(favors Brooks)