UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Raquel Pennington (13-5).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 225 points above Pennington's 1411. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington has won 6 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Raquel Pennington.** The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Jacare Souza (9-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Souza.

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 152 points above Souza's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gastelum's knockout artist game against Souza's wrestler approach. Gastelum is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Jacare Souza.** We're leaning Gastelum here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Amanda Cooper (2-3).

Dern is rated at 1472 — 669 points above Cooper's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Amanda Cooper.** The model is firm on this one: Dern at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Dern at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kelleher.

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 689 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lineker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kelleher looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kelleher the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Lineker over Brian Kelleher.** We're leaning Lineker here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lineker at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9).

Machida is rated at 1493 — 238 points above Belfort's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Machida's all-rounder game against Belfort's knockout artist approach. Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Belfort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Vitor Belfort.** The model is firm on this one: Machida at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Machida at 68% implied while our model sees 82% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Karl Roberson (4-5). Ferreira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ferreira is rated at 1033 — 215 points above Roberson's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Roberson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Karl Roberson.** We're leaning Ferreira here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ferreira at 50% implied while our model sees 66% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Junior Albini (1-3). Oleinik will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oleinik is rated at 1073 — 255 points above Albini's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albini throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Albini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Junior Albini over Aleksei Oleinik.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Albini at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Oleinik at 41% implied while our model sees 48% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Davi Ramos (4-2) taking on Nick Hein (4-3). Ramos will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ramos is rated at 1160 — 342 points above Hein's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ramos's wrestler game against Hein's striker approach. Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hein brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Hein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Davi Ramos over Nick Hein.** The model gives Ramos a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ramos at 58% implied while our model sees 64% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Sean Strickland (16-7). Strickland is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 772 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.** The model gives Strickland a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Santos, but our model sees only 38%. That 11-point gap favoring Strickland is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Sultan Aliev (1-2).

Aliev is rated at 1088 — 193 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Aliev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Aliev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Warlley Alves over Sultan Aliev.** The model is firm on this one: Alves at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Alves at 71% implied while our model sees 76% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Thales Leites (12-8).

Leites carries a modest Elo edge (1176 to 1117), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Hermansson's striker game against Leites's wrestler approach. Hermansson brings a versatile approach, while Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Thales Leites.** The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hermansson at 57% implied while our model sees 64% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramazan Emeev (5-2) taking on Alberto Mina (3-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mina at 1186 versus Emeev at 1047. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Mina has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mina throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Emeev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ramazan Emeev over Alberto Mina.** The model is firm on this one: Emeev at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Emeev at 61% implied while our model sees 76% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Markus Perez (2-4) taking on James Bochnovic (0-1). Bochnovic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Perez at 784, Bochnovic at 787. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Markus Perez over James Bochnovic.** The model is firm on this one: Perez at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 73% implied while our model sees 79% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.