UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Saturday, April 21, 2018·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Kevin Lee won by KO/TKO (R5)
Lee 71%29% Barboza
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Lee)
Featherweight✓
Frankie Edgar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edgar 69%31% Swanson
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +168(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Edgar)
Heavyweight✓
Justin Willis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Willis 74%26% Sherman
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +290(favors Willis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Willis)
Middleweight✗
David Branch won by KO/TKO (R1)
Branch 45%55% Santos
LEANMarket: 39% (+5.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -335(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Branch)
Bantamweight✓
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 51%49% Johns
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -134(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.9(favors Johns)
Lightweight✓
Dan Hooker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hooker 58%42% Miller
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Miller)
Welterweight✗
Ryan LaFlare won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
LaFlare 48%52% Garcia
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-10.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +93(favors LaFlare)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors LaFlare)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Garcia)
Bantamweight✓
Ricky Simon won by Submission (R3)
Simon 56%44% Dvalishvili
LEANMarket: 56% (+0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Dvalishvili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -11.0(favors Dvalishvili)
Welterweight✗
Siyar Bahadurzada won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bahadurzada 43%57% Chagas
LEANMarket: 40% (+3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +184(favors Bahadurzada)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Chagas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Bahadurzada)
Light Heavyweight✓
Corey Anderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anderson 70%30% Cummins
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+12.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cummins)
Welterweight✓
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martin 60%40% Nakamura
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Nakamura)