UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Saturday, April 14, 2018·Glendale, Arizona, USA
Model Record: 11/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R4)
Poirier 60%40% Gaethje
LEANMarket: 53% (+7.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +406(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Poirier)
Welterweight✓
Alex Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 57%43% Condit
LEANMarket: 63% (-5.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Condit)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Oliveira)
Middleweight✓
Israel Adesanya won by Decision - Split (R3)
Adesanya 56%44% Vettori
LEANMarket: 68% (-12.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Vettori)
Women's Strawweight✗
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Waterson-Gomez 33%67% Casey
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Waterson-Gomez)
Middleweight✓
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Submission (R1)
Junior 77%23% Boetsch
STRONGMarket: 69% (+7.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -117(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Junior)
Welterweight✓
Muslim Salikhov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Salikhov 65%35% Rainey
LEANMarket: 64% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -77(favors Rainey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Salikhov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rainey)
Flyweight✓
John Moraga won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moraga 51%49% Reis
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+4.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +101(favors Moraga)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Moraga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Reis)
Middleweight✓
Brad Tavares won by KO/TKO (R3)
Tavares 55%45% Jotko
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+6.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +263(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Jotko)
Lightweight✓
Gilbert Burns won by KO/TKO (R2)
Burns 87%13% Moret
STRONGMarket: 84% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +256(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Burns)
Women's Flyweight✗
Lauren Mueller won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mueller 50%50% Dobson
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -128(favors Dobson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Dobson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dobson)
Welterweight✓
Yushin Okami won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Okami 67%33% Lima
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+14.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +437(favors Okami)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lima)
Heavyweight✗
Adam Wieczorek won by Submission (R2)
Wieczorek 45%55% Bhullar
TOSS-UPMarket: 24% (+21.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -43(favors Bhullar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Wieczorek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Bhullar)
Bantamweight✓
Alejandro Perez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Perez 53%47% Lopez
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+3.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Lopez)
Bantamweight✓
Luke Sanders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanders 84%16% Williams
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -11(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.9(favors Williams)