UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Fabricio Werdum (11-6). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 260 points above Werdum's 1495. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Alexander Volkov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Werdum at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 35% implied while our model sees 49% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Jimi Manuwa (6-5).

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 509 points above Manuwa's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Manuwa's knockout artist approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Manuwa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blachowicz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Manuwa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimi Manuwa over Jan Blachowicz.** The model is firm on this one: Manuwa at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tom Duquesnoy (1-1) taking on Terrion Ware (0-3). Ware will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duquesnoy is rated at 1103 — 371 points above Ware's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ware throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Duquesnoy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Duquesnoy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Duquesnoy over Terrion Ware.** The model is firm on this one: Duquesnoy at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Duquesnoy at 76% implied while our model sees 83% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Peter Sobotta (4-5).

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 514 points above Sobotta's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sobotta is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Edwards the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sobotta throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Leon Edwards over Peter Sobotta.** We're leaning Edwards here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 65% implied while our model sees 74% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Charles Byrd (1-2) taking on John Phillips (1-4).

Phillips carries a modest Elo edge (792 to 741), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Phillips over Charles Byrd.** The model gives Phillips a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Byrd, but our model sees only 43%. That 5-point gap favoring Phillips is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-6) taking on Oliver Enkamp (0-1). Enkamp will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Roberts carries a modest Elo edge (906 to 860), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Enkamp is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Roberts over Oliver Enkamp.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Roberts at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Roberts, but our model sees only 53%. That 7-point gap favoring Enkamp is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Danny Henry (2-1) taking on Hakeem Dawodu (6-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Henry.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dawodu at 1090 versus Henry at 956. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Henry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Dawodu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Danny Henry.** We're leaning Dawodu here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Henry at 28% implied while our model sees 34% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1).

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 727 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Craig's wrestler game against Ankalaev's striker approach. Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ankalaev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Paul Craig.** We're leaning Ankalaev here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Craig at 16% implied while our model sees 27% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Kajan Johnson (4-2) taking on Stevie Ray (6-4). Johnson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Johnson at 1168, Ray at 1193. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kajan Johnson over Stevie Ray.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 37% implied while our model sees 52% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Dmitry Sosnovskiy (0-0) taking on Mark Godbeer (2-1).

Sosnovskiy is rated at 1117 — 213 points above Godbeer's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godbeer throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Godbeer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sosnovskiy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Godbeer over Dmitry Sosnovskiy.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Godbeer at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.