UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Saturday, February 10, 2018·Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Model Record: 11/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 52%48% Rockhold
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+3.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Rockhold)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Romero)
Heavyweight✓
Curtis Blaydes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blaydes 81%19% Hunt
STRONGMarket: 62% (+19.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -283(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Blaydes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.4(favors Blaydes)
Heavyweight✓
Tai Tuivasa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tuivasa 82%18% Asker
STRONGMarket: 73% (+9.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +47(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.1(favors Asker)
Welterweight✓
Jake Matthews won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Matthews 58%42% Jingliang
LEANMarket: 40% (+17.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -180(favors Jingliang)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Jingliang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Matthews)
Light Heavyweight✓
Tyson Pedro won by Submission (R1)
Pedro 80%20% Safarov
STRONG
→Elo gap: +254(favors Pedro)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Safarov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Pedro)
Lightweight✓
Dong Hyun Ma won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ma 68%32% Brown
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+11.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +108(favors Ma)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Ma)
Middleweight✓
Israel Adesanya won by KO/TKO (R2)
Adesanya 70%30% Wilkinson
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +77(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Wilkinson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Wilkinson)
Featherweight✗
Alexander Volkanovski won by KO/TKO (R2)
Volkanovski 40%60% Kennedy
LEAN
→Elo gap: -9(favors Kennedy)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Kennedy)
Flyweight✓
Jussier Formiga won by Submission (R3)
Formiga 56%44% Nguyen
LEANMarket: 50% (+5.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Nguyen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Formiga)
Lightweight✓
Ross Pearson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pearson 61%39% Hirota
LEANMarket: 61% (+0.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Hirota)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Hirota)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Hirota)
Bantamweight✓
Jose Quinonez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quinonez 63%37% Ishihara
LEANMarket: 62% (+0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +181(favors Quinonez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Quinonez)
Welterweight✓
Luke Jumeau won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jumeau 57%43% Abe
LEANMarket: 41% (+16.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -98(favors Abe)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Abe)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Abe)