UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Derek Brunson (14-6). Brunson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 215 points above Souza's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Souza's wrestler game against Brunson's knockout artist approach. Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brunson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Derek Brunson. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Dennis Bermudez (9-7). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Fili carries a modest Elo edge (1140 to 1068), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Fili's striker game against Bermudez's wrestler approach. Fili brings a versatile approach, while Bermudez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Dennis Bermudez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fili at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Fili at 40% implied while our model sees 51% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gregor Gillespie (6-1) taking on Jordan Rinaldi (2-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rinaldi.

Gillespie is rated at 1554 — 483 points above Rinaldi's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gillespie throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillespie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Rinaldi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregor Gillespie over Jordan Rinaldi. The model is firm on this one: Gillespie at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Gillespie at 80% implied while our model sees 90% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Frank Camacho (2-5). Camacho is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dober is rated at 1083 — 293 points above Camacho's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dober's submission artist game against Camacho's striker approach. Dober is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Camacho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Camacho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Dober over Frank Camacho. We're leaning Dober here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dober at 60% implied while our model sees 67% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Erik Koch (4-5).

Green is rated at 1176 — 159 points above Koch's 1017. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Green's all-rounder game against Koch's knockout artist approach. Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Koch is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Koch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Erik Koch. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Green at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Green, but our model sees only 52%. That 10-point gap favoring Koch is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Mirsad Bektic (6-3) taking on Godofredo Pepey (5-5). Pepey will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bektic at 1010, Pepey at 1026. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bektic throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Bektic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Godofredo Pepey. The model is firm on this one: Bektic at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Bektic at 82% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Mara Romero Borella (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerminara.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 527 points above Borella's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cerminara's striker game against Borella's wrestler approach. Cerminara brings a versatile approach, while Borella looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Borella is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Borella has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Mara Romero Borella. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cerminara at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Juliana Lima (3-3).

Markos carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Markos's all-rounder game against Lima's striker approach. Markos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randa Markos over Juliana Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Markos at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Markos, but our model sees only 54%. That 5-point gap favoring Lima is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ji Yeon Kim (3-6) taking on Justine Kish (3-3). Kim is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Kish is rated at 900 — 177 points above Kim's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kim's striker game against Kish's all-rounder approach. Kim brings a versatile approach, while Kish is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justine Kish over Ji Yeon Kim. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kish at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kim at 33% implied while our model sees 49% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-4) taking on Joaquim Silva (6-5). Pichel is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1139 to 1062), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Pichel's all-rounder game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Pichel is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pichel throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquim Silva over Vinc Pichel. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Pichel, but our model sees only 42%. That 5-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on George Sullivan (3-3). Price will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sullivan carries a modest Elo edge (884 to 816), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sullivan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sullivan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sullivan throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sullivan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Sullivan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niko Price over George Sullivan. The model is firm on this one: Price at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Price at 75% implied while our model sees 79% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Austin Arnett (1-2).

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 826 points above Arnett's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Austin Arnett. The model gives Sandhagen a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.