The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Nicco Montano (1-0) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7). Modafferi is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Montano at 1006, Modafferi at 979. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Modafferi throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nicco Montano over Roxanne Modafferi. We're leaning Montano here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Terrion Ware (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring O'Malley.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 1016 points above Ware's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ware throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ware is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean O'Malley over Terrion Ware. The model gives O'Malley a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Barb Honchak (0-1).

Murphy is rated at 1171 — 405 points above Honchak's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Honchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lauren Murphy over Barb Honchak. The model gives Murphy a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Eric Spicely (2-4). Meerschaert will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Meerschaert at 867 versus Spicely at 727. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meerschaert throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Spicely has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Eric Spicely. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meerschaert at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features DeAnna Bennett (0-0) taking on Melinda Fabian (0-0-1).

Bennett carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 930), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fabian throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fabian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fabian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melinda Fabian over DeAnna Bennett. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fabian at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brett Johns (4-2) taking on Joe Soto (3-4). Johns will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johns is rated at 1295 — 332 points above Soto's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brett Johns over Joe Soto. We're leaning Johns here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1) taking on Christina Marks (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rosa at 1036 versus Marks at 890. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marks throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over Christina Marks. We're leaning Rosa here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Ryan Janes (1-2) taking on Andrew Sanchez (5-4). Janes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Janes at 1072 versus Sanchez at 932. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Janes throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Janes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrew Sanchez over Ryan Janes. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Rachael Ostovich (1-2) taking on Karine Gevorgyan (0-0).

Gevorgyan is rated at 890 — 166 points above Ostovich's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gevorgyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gevorgyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gevorgyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rachael Ostovich over Karine Gevorgyan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ostovich at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Shana Dobson (2-3) taking on Ariel Beck (0-0). Dobson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dobson at 848, Beck at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beck throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Beck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Beck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shana Dobson over Ariel Beck. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dobson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Emily Whitmire (2-3).

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 649 points above Whitmire's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whitmire throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Whitmire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Whitmire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Emily Whitmire. The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.