UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum
Saturday, November 25, 2017·Shanghai, Hebei, China·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gastelum 72%28% Bisping
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-0.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -192(favors Bisping)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Gastelum)
WelterweightHIT
Li Jingliang won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jingliang 65%35% Ottow
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 65% (-0.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Ottow)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Jingliang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Jingliang)
FeatherweightMISS
Wang Guan won by Decision - Split (R3)
Guan 42%58% Caceres
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 43% (-1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -108(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Caceres)
WelterweightMISS
Alex Garcia won by Submission (R2)
Garcia 37%63% Salikhov
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 33% (+3.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +204(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Garcia)
FeatherweightHIT
Zabit Magomedsharipov won by Submission (R3)
Magomedsharipov 73%27% Moraes
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +166(favors Magomedsharipov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Magomedsharipov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Magomedsharipov)
WelterweightHIT
Song Kenan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kenan 50%50% Nash
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +275(favors Kenan)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Nash)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Nash)
Prelims
Women's StrawweightHIT
Yan Xiaonan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Xiaonan 59%41% Curran
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 58% (+1.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +249(favors Xiaonan)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Curran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Curran)
FeatherweightHIT
Song Yadong won by Submission (R1)
Yadong 60%40% Kandare
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kandare)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kandare)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kandare)
HeavyweightHIT
Shamil Abdurakhimov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Abdurakhimov 54%46% Sherman
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-1.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Sherman)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Abdurakhimov)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Gina Mazany won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mazany 43%57% Yanan
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Yanan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Yanan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Yanan)
FeatherweightMISS
Rolando Dy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dy 35%65% Wulijiburen
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -252(favors Wulijiburen)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Dy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Dy)
HeavyweightHIT
Cyril Asker won by Submission (R2)
Asker 61%39% Yaozong
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEANMarket: 69% (-7.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -210(favors Yaozong)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Asker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Asker)