UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 253 points above Tybura's 1242. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tybura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tybura the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Marcin Tybura.** The model gives Werdum a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 74% for Werdum, but our model sees only 63%. That 11-point gap favoring Tybura is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4) taking on Bec Rawlings (2-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Clark at 762, Rawlings at 787. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Clark's striker game against Rawlings's all-rounder approach. Clark brings a versatile approach, while Rawlings is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rawlings is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bec Rawlings over Jessica-Rose Clark.** The model gives Rawlings a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Clark, but our model sees only 38%. That 6-point gap favoring Rawlings is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Tim Means (15-13). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 875 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muhammad's striker game against Means's all-rounder approach. Muhammad brings a versatile approach, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Means over Belal Muhammad.** We're leaning Means here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Muhammad, but our model sees only 27%. That 8-point gap favoring Means is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Bojan Velickovic (2-2-1). Velickovic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 294 points above Velickovic's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Matthews looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Velickovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Matthews the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Velickovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Bojan Velickovic.** The model gives Matthews a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 56% implied while our model sees 65% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Daniel Kelly (6-3). Theodorou will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 217 points above Kelly's 1052. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Theodorou's striker game against Kelly's all-rounder approach. Theodorou brings a versatile approach, while Kelly is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Daniel Kelly.** The model is firm on this one: Theodorou at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Theodorou at 72% implied while our model sees 77% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Shane Young (2-4).

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 1082 points above Young's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Young has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Shane Young.** We're leaning Volkanovski here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Ryan Benoit (3-5) taking on Ashkan Mokhtarian (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Benoit at 810, Mokhtarian at 836. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benoit throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokhtarian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Benoit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Benoit over Ashkan Mokhtarian.** We're leaning Benoit here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Will Brooks (1-2). Brooks is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 225 points above Brooks's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brooks throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Will Brooks over Nik Lentz.** We're leaning Brooks here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lentz at 20% implied while our model sees 33% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tai Tuivasa (8-8) taking on Rashad Coulter (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Tuivasa.

Tuivasa is rated at 1107 — 350 points above Coulter's 757. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coulter throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Coulter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuivasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Rashad Coulter.** We're leaning Tuivasa here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Tuivasa at 62% implied while our model sees 68% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Frank Camacho (2-5) taking on Damien Brown (2-3). Camacho will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (854 to 790), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Camacho's striker game against Brown's all-rounder approach. Camacho brings a versatile approach, while Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Camacho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Damien Brown over Frank Camacho.** The model gives Brown a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 55% for Camacho, but our model sees only 42%. That 13-point gap favoring Brown is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Nadia Kassem (1-1) taking on Alex Chambers (1-3). Kassem is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kassem carries a modest Elo edge (862 to 801), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chambers throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chambers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Kassem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nadia Kassem over Alex Chambers.** The model gives Kassem a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Eric Shelton (2-3) taking on Jenel Lausa (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Shelton at 921 versus Lausa at 795. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lausa throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shelton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lausa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eric Shelton over Jenel Lausa.** The model is firm on this one: Shelton at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Shelton at 76% implied while our model sees 84% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Adam Wieczorek (2-0) taking on Anthony Hamilton (3-6). Wieczorek will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Wieczorek is rated at 1037 — 315 points above Hamilton's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Wieczorek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Adam Wieczorek over Anthony Hamilton.** The model is firm on this one: Wieczorek at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Wieczorek at 60% implied while our model sees 75% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.