UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Saturday, November 11, 2017·Norfolk, Virginia, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R3)
Poirier 56%44% Pettis
LEANMarket: 49% (+7.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -61(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Poirier)
Welterweight✓
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brown 78%22% Sanchez
STRONGMarket: 76% (+1.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sanchez)
Heavyweight✗
Andrei Arlovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Arlovski 19%81% Albini
STRONGMarket: 24% (-5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -88(favors Albini)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Albini)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Arlovski)
Middleweight✓
Cezar Ferreira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ferreira 78%22% Marquardt
STRONGMarket: 72% (+5.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Marquardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Ferreira)
Bantamweight✓
Raphael Assuncao won by KO/TKO (R3)
Assuncao 74%26% Lopez
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +197(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Assuncao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Lopez)
Lightweight✗
Clay Guida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Guida 45%55% Lauzon
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-6.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Guida)
Bantamweight✗
Marlon Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 44%56% Dodson
LEANMarket: 49% (-5.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -435(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Dodson)
Women's Strawweight✓
Tatiana Suarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Suarez 63%37% Pereira
LEANMarket: 73% (-10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -35(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Suarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +11.6(favors Suarez)
Lightweight✓
Sage Northcutt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Northcutt 75%25% Quinones
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+13.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +148(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Northcutt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Northcutt)
Women's Strawweight✗
Nina Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 46%54% Hill
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+9.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +10(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Nunes)
Welterweight✓
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Strickland 78%22% McGee
STRONGMarket: 72% (+5.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +268(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors McGee)
Light Heavyweight✗
Jake Collier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Collier 36%64% Fortuna
LEANMarket: 31% (+5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -121(favors Fortuna)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Fortuna)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Collier)
Middleweight✓
Karl Roberson won by Submission (R1)
Roberson 65%35% Stewart
LEANMarket: 66% (-1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +67(favors Roberson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Stewart)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Stewart)