UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8).

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 500 points above Bisping's 1522. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is St-Pierre's wrestler game against Bisping's striker approach. St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Michael Bisping. The model gives St-Pierre a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has St-Pierre at 51% implied while our model sees 59% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Cody Garbrandt (9-6).

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 427 points above Garbrandt's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dillashaw's all-rounder game against Garbrandt's striker approach. Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Garbrandt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Cody Garbrandt. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4).

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 229 points above Jedrzejczyk's 1192. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Namajunas's wrestler game against Jedrzejczyk's striker approach. Namajunas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Rose Namajunas. We're leaning Jedrzejczyk here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Namajunas at 15% implied while our model sees 35% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9).

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 250 points above Thompson's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Thompson's striker game against Masvidal's all-rounder approach. Thompson brings a versatile approach, while Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Jorge Masvidal. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thompson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Thompson, but our model sees only 51%. That 11-point gap favoring Masvidal is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Paulo Costa (6-4) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7). Costa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Costa is rated at 1513 — 445 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Costa over Johny Hendricks. The model gives Costa a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Joe Duffy (4-3). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Vick carries a modest Elo edge (1026 to 958), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Vick's wrestler game against Duffy's knockout artist approach. Vick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Duffy is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Vick over Joe Duffy. We're leaning Vick here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Godbeer (2-1) taking on Walt Harris (6-8).

Harris is rated at 1133 — 229 points above Godbeer's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godbeer throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walt Harris over Mark Godbeer. The model is firm on this one: Harris at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Corey Anderson (10-4).

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 542 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Anderson's striker approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anderson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Ovince Saint Preux. We're leaning Anderson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Mickey Gall (6-6). Brown will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 620 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gall looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gall the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gall throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Mickey Gall. We're leaning Brown here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 48% implied while our model sees 70% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7).

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 562 points above Oleinik's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blaydes's striker game against Oleinik's submission artist approach. Blaydes brings a versatile approach, while Oleinik is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Aleksei Oleinik. We're leaning Blaydes here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-6) taking on Aiemann Zahabi (7-2). Ramos will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 758 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Ramos's all-rounder game against Zahabi's striker approach. Ramos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zahabi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Zahabi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Aiemann Zahabi. We're leaning Ramos here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ramos at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.