UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Lyoto Machida (15-8). Brunson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Machida at 1493 versus Brunson at 1402. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Lyoto Machida.** We're leaning Brunson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 61% implied while our model sees 70% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Demian Maia (22-10).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 259 points above Maia's 1371. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Colby Covington over Demian Maia.** We're leaning Covington here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Covington at 55% implied while our model sees 65% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Rob Font (12-7). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Font is rated at 1361 — 150 points above Munhoz's 1211. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Munhoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Font is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Munhoz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Munhoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Rob Font.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Munhoz at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Munhoz at 37% implied while our model sees 52% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

There's a real Elo separation here: Trinaldo at 1329 versus Miller at 1213. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Francisco Trinaldo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 49%. That 14-point gap favoring Miller is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7).

Santos is rated at 1292 — 175 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Hermansson's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Thiago Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hermansson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lineker at 1455, Vera at 1460. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Lineker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Vera looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Vera the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lineker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Lineker over Marlon Vera.** The model is firm on this one: Lineker at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Lineker at 79% implied while our model sees 83% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Niko Price (8-9).

Luque is rated at 1250 — 434 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Luque is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Luque the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Niko Price over Vicente Luque.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Price at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Luque, but our model sees only 49%. That 8-point gap favoring Price is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4) taking on Jack Marshman (3-4). Junior is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Junior is rated at 1144 — 229 points above Marshman's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Junior's wrestler game against Marshman's striker approach. Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Marshman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshman throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Marshman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Jack Marshman.** The model is firm on this one: Junior at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Hacran Dias (3-4).

Gordon is rated at 1209 — 229 points above Dias's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gordon's striker game against Dias's wrestler approach. Gordon brings a versatile approach, while Dias looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jared Gordon over Hacran Dias.** We're leaning Gordon here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gordon at 59% implied while our model sees 69% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Max Griffin (8-9). Griffin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Griffin at 1152 versus Santos at 1041. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Santos's all-rounder game against Griffin's striker approach. Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Griffin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Max Griffin.** We're leaning Santos here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 64% implied while our model sees 67% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Jarred Brooks (1-2). Figueiredo is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 524 points above Brooks's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brooks throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brooks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Jarred Brooks.** The model gives Figueiredo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Figueiredo at 37% implied while our model sees 57% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcelo Golm (1-2) taking on Christian Colombo (0-1-1).

Colombo carries a modest Elo edge (814 to 784), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Colombo throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Colombo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Golm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcelo Golm over Christian Colombo.** The model gives Golm a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.