UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Saturday, April 12, 2025·Miami, Florida, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✗
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Volkanovski 36%64% Lopes
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Lopes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Volkanovski)
Lightweight✓
Paddy Pimblett won by KO/TKO (R3)
Pimblett 69%31% Chandler
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Chandler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Chandler)
Featherweight✓
Yair Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 68%32% Freire
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +552(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Rodriguez)
Featherweight✗
Jean Silva won by Submission (R2)
Silva 44%56% Mitchell
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +68(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Mitchell)
Light Heavyweight✗
Dominick Reyes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Reyes 49%51% Krylov
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -121(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Krylov)
Featherweight✗
Dan Ige won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ige 40%60% Woodson
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Woodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Woodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Woodson)
Women's Strawweight✗
Virna Jandiroba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jandiroba 49%51% Xiaonan
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Jandiroba)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Xiaonan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Jandiroba)
Lightweight✓
Chase Hooper won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hooper 64%36% Miller
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Hooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Hooper)
Featherweight✓
Julian Erosa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Erosa 52%48% Elkins
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Elkins)
Middleweight✗
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleksiejczuk 40%60% Dumas
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +67(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Oleksiejczuk)
Flyweight✓
Sumudaerji won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sumudaerji 58%42% Raposo
LEAN
→Elo gap: -36(favors Raposo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Sumudaerji)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Raposo)
Middleweight✓
Marco Tulio won by KO/TKO (R2)
Tulio 55%45% Gore
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +24(favors Tulio)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.5(favors Tulio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Gore)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Nora Cornolle won by Submission (R2)
Cornolle 56%44% Cowan
LEAN
→Elo gap: +236(favors Cornolle)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Cowan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Cowan)