UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 876 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Stefan Struve. The model gives Volkov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 53% implied while our model sees 59% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Siyar Bahadurzada (4-3) taking on Rob Wilkinson (0-1). Wilkinson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Bahadurzada is rated at 1086 — 263 points above Wilkinson's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahadurzada throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bahadurzada is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Wilkinson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Siyar Bahadurzada over Rob Wilkinson. The model gives Bahadurzada a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Marion Reneau (5-6-1) taking on Talita Bernardo (1-2).

Reneau carries a modest Elo edge (878 to 830), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Reneau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bernardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marion Reneau over Talita Bernardo. We're leaning Reneau here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 636 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Bryan Barberena. We're leaning Edwards here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 70% implied while our model sees 73% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Darren Till (6-4-1) taking on Bojan Velickovic (2-2-1).

Till is rated at 1296 — 295 points above Velickovic's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Till's striker game against Velickovic's all-rounder approach. Till brings a versatile approach, while Velickovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Till throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Till is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Velickovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Bojan Velickovic. We're leaning Till here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Till at 66% implied while our model sees 72% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mairbek Taisumov (7-1) taking on Felipe Silva (1-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Taisumov is rated at 1362 — 481 points above Silva's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Taisumov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Taisumov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Taisumov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mairbek Taisumov over Felipe Silva. We're leaning Taisumov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Taisumov at 71% implied while our model sees 74% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on Mads Burnell (1-1). Burnell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Prazeres is rated at 1157 — 180 points above Burnell's 977. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prazeres throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Burnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Prazeres over Mads Burnell. We're leaning Prazeres here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Prazeres, but our model sees only 68%. That 7-point gap favoring Burnell is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Desmond Green (3-3).

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 168 points above Green's 1221. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Desmond Green. The model gives Khabilov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 71% for Khabilov, but our model sees only 64%. That 6-point gap favoring Green is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aleksandar Rakic (6-4) taking on Francimar Barroso (4-3). Rakic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rakic is rated at 1283 — 322 points above Barroso's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barroso throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Barroso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Rakic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Francimar Barroso. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rakic at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Zabit Magomedsharipov (5-0) taking on Mike Santiago (0-2). Magomedsharipov is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Magomedsharipov is rated at 1494 — 766 points above Santiago's 728. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedsharipov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santiago throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov over Mike Santiago. The model is firm on this one: Magomedsharipov at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Magomedsharipov at 78% implied while our model sees 88% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Abdul-Kerim Edilov (0-0) taking on Bojan Mihajlovic (0-2).

Edilov is rated at 1065 — 317 points above Mihajlovic's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mihajlovic throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mihajlovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Edilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul-Kerim Edilov over Bojan Mihajlovic. The model is firm on this one: Edilov at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Edilov at 84% implied while our model sees 90% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Thibault Gouti (1-4) taking on Andrew Holbrook (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gouti at 831 versus Holbrook at 751. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouti throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Holbrook is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Holbrook has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrew Holbrook over Thibault Gouti. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holbrook at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gouti at 38% implied while our model sees 46% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.