UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno
Saturday, August 5, 2017·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Flyweight✗
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Pettis 40%60% Moreno
LEANMarket: 40% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Moreno)
Women's Strawweight✓
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Split (R3)
Grasso 73%27% Markos
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+12.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Markos)
Welterweight✓
Niko Price won by KO/TKO (R1)
Price 50%50% Jouban
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+11.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Price)
Featherweight✗
Humberto Bandenay won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bandenay 17%83% Bravo
STRONGMarket: 27% (-10.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -128(favors Bravo)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.1(favors Bravo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bravo)
Middleweight✓
Sam Alvey won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvey 58%42% Evans
LEANMarket: 53% (+4.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -81(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Evans)
Bantamweight✓
Alejandro Perez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Perez 58%42% Soukhamthath
LEANMarket: 56% (+2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Perez)
Middleweight✓
Jack Hermansson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hermansson 70%30% Scott
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+0.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +110(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Hermansson)
Flyweight✓
Dustin Ortiz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ortiz 63%37% Sandoval
LEANMarket: 65% (-1.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -105(favors Sandoval)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Sandoval)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sandoval)
Bantamweight✓
Rani Yahya won by Submission (R1)
Yahya 70%30% Briones
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +271(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Briones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Yahya)
Bantamweight✓
Jose Quinonez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quinonez 72%28% Rivas
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -103(favors Rivas)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Quinonez)
Flyweight✓
Joseph Morales won by Submission (R1)
Morales 61%39% Sanchez
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sanchez)
Lightweight✗
Jordan Rinaldi won by Submission (R1)
Rinaldi 49%51% Mendoza
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -15(favors Mendoza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Mendoza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Rinaldi)