UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Jon Jones (21-1). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 12-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 326 points above Cormier's 1835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cormier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Daniel Cormier.** We're leaning Jones here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Demian Maia (22-10). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Maia.

There's a real Elo separation here: Woodley at 1461 versus Maia at 1371. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Woodley's knockout artist game against Maia's wrestler approach. Woodley is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodley throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyron Woodley over Demian Maia.** The model gives Woodley a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Woodley, but our model sees only 61%. That 3-point gap favoring Maia is worth watching.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Cristiane Justino (5-1) taking on Tonya Evinger (0-2).

Justino is rated at 1362 — 561 points above Evinger's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Justino throws significantly more leather — a 12.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Justino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Evinger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cristiane Justino over Tonya Evinger.** The model is firm on this one: Justino at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13).

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 243 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Cerrone the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Donald Cerrone.** The model gives Lawler a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lawler at 59% implied while our model sees 63% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Jimi Manuwa (6-5). Manuwa will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 431 points above Manuwa's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oezdemir's all-rounder game against Manuwa's knockout artist approach. Oezdemir is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Manuwa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Manuwa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimi Manuwa over Volkan Oezdemir.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Manuwa at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Oezdemir at 38% implied while our model sees 49% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Jason Knight (4-4).

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 297 points above Knight's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Knight looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Knight the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knight throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Knight has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Knight over Ricardo Lamas.** We're leaning Knight here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 47% for Lamas, but our model sees only 33%. That 15-point gap favoring Knight is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Renan Barao (9-7).

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 862 points above Barao's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sterling the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Renan Barao.** We're leaning Sterling here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 45% implied while our model sees 65% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Renato Moicano (12-6). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Moicano carries a modest Elo edge (1542 to 1490), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Ortega is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renato Moicano over Brian Ortega.** The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ortega at 38% implied while our model sees 42% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Calvin Kattar (7-7) taking on Andre Fili (12-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kattar at 1231 versus Fili at 1140. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Kattar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Fili over Calvin Kattar.** The model is firm on this one: Fili at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Aleksandra Albu (2-1) taking on Kailin Curran (1-5). Curran is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Albu is rated at 917 — 181 points above Curran's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albu throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kailin Curran over Aleksandra Albu.** The model gives Curran a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jarred Brooks (1-2) taking on Eric Shelton (2-3). Shelton is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Brooks carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 921), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shelton throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shelton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eric Shelton over Jarred Brooks.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shelton at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Brooks, but our model sees only 45%. That 13-point gap favoring Shelton is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11). Burkman is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dober is rated at 1083 — 339 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Burkman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burkman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drew Dober over Joshua Burkman.** The model gives Dober a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.