UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Saturday, July 22, 2017·Uniondale, New York, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Weidman won by Submission (R3)
Weidman 61%39% Gastelum
LEANMarket: 41% (+19.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Weidman)
FeatherweightMISS
Darren Elkins won by Decision - Split (R3)
Elkins 44%56% Bermudez
LEANMarket: 34% (+10.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +293(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Elkins)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Patrick Cummins won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cummins 49%51% Villante
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+8.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Cummins)
BantamweightHIT
Jimmie Rivera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rivera 58%42% Almeida
LEANMarket: 64% (-5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Rivera)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Santos 59%41% Good
LEANMarket: 39% (+19.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Good)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Santos)
MiddleweightMISS
Eryk Anders won by KO/TKO (R1)
Anders 45%55% Natal
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-7.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Natal)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Oliveira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Oliveira 61%39% LaFlare
LEANMarket: 37% (+23.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Oliveira)
HeavyweightHIT
Chase Sherman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sherman 81%19% Grabowski
STRONGMarket: 69% (+11.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +180(favors Sherman)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Grabowski)
FeatherweightHIT
Jeremy Kennedy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kennedy 80%20% Bochniak
STRONGMarket: 69% (+11.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +163(favors Kennedy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Bochniak)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Kennedy)
BantamweightMISS
Marlon Vera won by Submission (R1)
Vera 49%51% Kelleher
TOSS-UPMarket: 34% (+15.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Vera)
HeavyweightMISS
Junior Albini won by KO/TKO (R1)
Albini 29%71% Johnson
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -123(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Johnson)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burgos 81%19% Pepey
STRONGMarket: 78% (+3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Pepey)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Burgos)
LightweightHIT
Chris Wade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wade 70%30% Perez
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +127(favors Wade)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Wade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Wade)