UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Gunnar Nelson (10-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nelson at 1310 versus Ponzinibbio at 1177. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against Nelson's wrestler approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Santiago Ponzinibbio. The model gives Nelson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1) taking on Joanne Wood (8-8).

Wood is rated at 1101 — 190 points above Calvillo's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Calvillo's all-rounder game against Wood's striker approach. Calvillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Wood brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo over Joanne Wood. The model gives Calvillo a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on Stevie Ray (6-4).

Felder is rated at 1363 — 169 points above Ray's 1193. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Felder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stevie Ray over Paul Felder. The model gives Ray a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Marshman (3-4) taking on Ryan Janes (1-2). Janes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Janes is rated at 1072 — 156 points above Marshman's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Janes throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Janes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Janes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Marshman over Ryan Janes. The model is firm on this one: Marshman at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Marshman at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 461 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jr.'s striker game against Craig's wrestler approach. Jr. brings a versatile approach, while Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr. over Paul Craig. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jr. at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Willis (4-0) taking on James Mulheron (0-0). Willis is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Willis is rated at 1256 — 341 points above Mulheron's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Willis rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mulheron throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mulheron is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mulheron has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Willis over James Mulheron. The model gives Willis a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-6) taking on Bobby Nash (0-2).

Roberts is rated at 906 — 160 points above Nash's 747. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nash is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Roberts over Bobby Nash. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Roberts at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Roberts, but our model sees only 52%. That 10-point gap favoring Nash is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Neil Seery (3-3). Pantoja will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 536 points above Seery's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Seery throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Seery is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pantoja has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Neil Seery. The model is firm on this one: Pantoja at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Pantoja at 75% implied while our model sees 82% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Galore Bofando (1-0) taking on Charlie Ward (0-1).

Bofando is rated at 985 — 195 points above Ward's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ward throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ward is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bofando has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Galore Bofando over Charlie Ward. We're leaning Bofando here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bofando at 64% implied while our model sees 70% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Henry (2-1) taking on Daniel Teymur (1-3). Henry is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Henry at 956 versus Teymur at 811. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Teymur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Teymur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Henry over Daniel Teymur. The model gives Henry a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brett Johns (4-2) taking on Albert Morales (1-3-1).

Johns is rated at 1295 — 491 points above Morales's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johns's wrestler game against Morales's striker approach. Johns looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Morales brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.2 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brett Johns over Albert Morales. We're leaning Johns here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Leslie Smith (3-3) taking on Amanda Lemos (9-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 219 points above Smith's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Smith's striker game against Lemos's all-rounder approach. Smith brings a versatile approach, while Lemos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 7.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lemos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lemos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leslie Smith over Amanda Lemos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Smith, but our model sees only 54%. That 11-point gap favoring Lemos is worth watching.