UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Yoel Romero (9-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Romero at 1613 versus Whittaker at 1528. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Romero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Yoel Romero.** We're leaning Whittaker here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 52% implied while our model sees 69% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Fabricio Werdum (11-6). Overeem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Werdum at 1495 versus Overeem at 1412. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Overeem's knockout artist game against Werdum's all-rounder approach. Overeem is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Fabricio Werdum.** We're leaning Overeem here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Overeem at 57% implied while our model sees 66% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4). Blaydes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 675 points above Omielanczuk's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.5 more per 15 minutes. Omielanczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Daniel Omielanczuk.** The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 86% implied while our model sees 92% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 298 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Jim Miller.** We're leaning Pettis here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5). Font will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Font is rated at 1361 — 216 points above Andrade's 1146. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob Font over Douglas Silva de Andrade.** We're leaning Font here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Font, but our model sees only 66%. That 7-point gap favoring Andrade is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Travis Browne (9-6-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Browne.

Browne carries a modest Elo edge (1131 to 1073), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Oleinik looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oleinik the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browne throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Oleinik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aleksei Oleinik over Travis Browne.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oleinik at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Chad Laprise (6-3) taking on Brian Camozzi (0-2). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Laprise at 927 versus Camozzi at 783. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Laprise is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Laprise has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chad Laprise over Brian Camozzi.** The model is firm on this one: Laprise at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12).

Santos is rated at 1292 — 425 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Meerschaert's wrestler approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Thiago Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meerschaert at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Santos, but our model sees only 48%. That 12-point gap favoring Meerschaert is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Jordan Mein (4-4).

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 555 points above Mein's 1192. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muhammad's all-rounder game against Mein's striker approach. Muhammad is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mein brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Mein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Mein over Belal Muhammad.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mein at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Muhammad, but our model sees only 47%. That 8-point gap favoring Mein is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Terrion Ware (0-3). Ware is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Stamann is rated at 932 — 200 points above Ware's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ware throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ware is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ware has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Stamann over Terrion Ware.** We're leaning Stamann here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Stamann at 69% implied while our model sees 74% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-6) taking on James Bochnovic (0-1). Bochnovic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Giles carries a modest Elo edge (845 to 787), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bochnovic throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bochnovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bochnovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevin Giles over James Bochnovic.** We're leaning Giles here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.