UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Michael Chiesa (13-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Chiesa.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 293 points above Lee's 1197. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Lee over Michael Chiesa.** We're leaning Lee here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 55% implied while our model sees 69% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7). Boetsch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Boetsch at 1174 versus Hendricks at 1068. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Johny Hendricks.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Boetsch at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Boetsch at 42% implied while our model sees 53% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Felice Herrig (5-4) taking on Justine Kish (3-3).

Kish carries a modest Elo edge (900 to 822), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kish throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justine Kish over Felice Herrig.** We're leaning Kish here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 43% for Herrig, but our model sees only 33%. That 10-point gap favoring Kish is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Joachim Christensen (1-2).

Reyes is rated at 1529 — 667 points above Christensen's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Christensen throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Christensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Joachim Christensen.** The model is firm on this one: Reyes at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Reyes at 75% implied while our model sees 80% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Alex Garcia (5-4). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Garcia at 1006 versus Means at 872. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Garcia's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Garcia brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Means over Alex Garcia.** We're leaning Means here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 73% for Means, but our model sees only 70%. That 4-point gap favoring Garcia is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Penn.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 276 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Siver over BJ Penn.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Siver at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Erik Koch (4-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Koch.

There's a real Elo separation here: Koch at 1017 versus Guida at 926. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Koch is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Koch over Clay Guida.** We're leaning Koch here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Guida at 24% implied while our model sees 29% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Vitor Miranda (3-3). Miranda will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Vettori is rated at 1280 — 347 points above Miranda's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vettori's all-rounder game against Miranda's striker approach. Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miranda brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miranda throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Vitor Miranda.** The model is firm on this one: Vettori at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Vettori at 77% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Maryna Moroz (6-5). Moroz is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Esparza is rated at 1274 — 323 points above Moroz's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moroz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carla Esparza over Maryna Moroz.** We're leaning Esparza here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Esparza at 66% implied while our model sees 73% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Darrell Horcher (1-2) taking on Devin Powell (1-2). Powell is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Powell carries a modest Elo edge (908 to 860), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Powell throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Powell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Powell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darrell Horcher over Devin Powell.** We're leaning Horcher here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 78% for Horcher, but our model sees only 74%. That 4-point gap favoring Powell is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Michel Quinones (0-1). Quinones will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gordon is rated at 1209 — 388 points above Quinones's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinones throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Quinones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jared Gordon over Michel Quinones.** The model gives Gordon a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Johnny Case (4-1).

Martin is rated at 1419 — 371 points above Case's 1049. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Martin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Case is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Martin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Case throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Case is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Case has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Johnny Case.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martin at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jeremy Kimball (1-2) taking on Josh Stansbury (1-1). Stansbury is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kimball carries a modest Elo edge (837 to 792), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stansbury throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stansbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stansbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Kimball over Josh Stansbury.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kimball at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kimball at 38% implied while our model sees 53% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.